On June 5, Rahul Gandhi put out graphs on his Twitter account comparing India’s coronavirus lockdown with that of four European nations. According to him, the graphs depict why India’s lockdown has failed, with Covid-19 cases continuing to rise here while the curve has been flattened in UK, Germany, Spain and Italy. The basis for this assertion, however, is fundamentally incorrect.

Different timelines

First, the timeline of the Covid-19 outbreak is different in all these countries. On March 30, India had only one case per million population, whereas Spain was leading with 1,912 followed by Italy (1,696), Germany (806) and the UK (331), according to data accessed from worldometers.info and covid19India.org . Similarly, by the time India had one Covid death per million population, (on May 3), Spain had 549, Italy 481, the UK 425 and Germany 83. It is evident that in all these countries, the pandemic had started at a much earlier date, and would therefore peak earlier as well.

Second, the timing of lockdown imposition and reopening is also different. Italy imposed a lockdown on March 9, followed by Spain on March 14, Germany on March 22, the UK on March 23 and India on March 25. Germany ended its lockdown on April 19, followed by Spain on May 4 and Italy on May 18. The UK is yet to lift its lockdown while India started the first phase of the nationwide reopening on June 1. Thus, not only has the timeline of the Covid-19 outbreak across these countries been very different, the dates of initiation and lifting of their respective lockdowns also varies, thus making for an ‘apples to oranges’ comparison.

Third, India’s nationwide lockdown was imposed when Covid-19 cases and deaths were extremely low, compared to other countries, that had many more cases and fatalities by the time they decided to lockdown. According to Oxford University’s Covid Stringency Index, by the time Italy had imposed a strict lockdown (Index Score 93.25), they already had 79 daily Covid cases and 12 daily deaths, per million population. In stark contrast, when India’s nationwide lockdown was imposed (Index score 100), the country had only 0.04 daily Covid cases and 0 daily deaths, per million population.

Neil Ferguson, who is a former advisor to the UK government and a professor at Imperial College London, has recently stated that the number of coronavirus deaths in the UK could have been halved if the lockdown had been imposed a week earlier. While one may say that such statements have the benefit of hindsight, there is no doubt that India chose to adopt a cautious approach instead of ‘waiting and watching’, which in turn could have translated into a heavy price paid in terms of lives lost, similar to countries like the UK, Italy and Spain. As on June 11, the UK had 620 deaths per million population, Spain had 581, Italy 565 and Germany 106. India, in contrast, had only six deaths per million population.

Assumptions, at best

Of course, the precise number of cases and deaths averted by lockdowns can at best be estimated through assumption-based models, in the absence of a counterfactual for such a scenario. A study released by Imperial College London estimates that restrictions in 11 European countries could have saved over three million lives from coronavirus. Similarly, for India, various expert estimates suggest that anywhere between 14-29 lakh cases and 37,000-78,000 deaths may have been averted due to the lockdown.

It is important to appreciate that we are dealing with a novel virus that the world still knows relatively little about. From no “clear evidence of human-to-human transmission” as per the World Health Organization in January to over 7.5 million cases and 4,21,867 deaths as on June 11, Covid-19 has overwhelmed both health systems and economies in even some of the most developed countries around the world.

In this context, India cannot be faulted for imposing an early lockdown with the clear intent of saving as many lives as possible. Moreover, lockdowns should not be viewed as ‘all or nothing’ solutions. While India has gradually lifted the national lockdown, States are free to impose restrictions as and when required, if the situation gets out of hand at any point in time. Thus, the ultimate impact of lockdowns in India can only be estimated in the final analysis, and the post-mortem should best be left until this is over. For now, India’s focus should be on containing the spread of the infection and minimising fatalities, as the country reopens.

The writer is Public Policy Specialist, NITI Aayog. Views are personal

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