For the last seven years Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his 2C-in-C, Home Minister Amit Shah, have left everyone wondering about the way they have gone about running the country. One consequence of this bafflement has been the persistent attacks on them by everyone who can’t understand their method.

But it’s all really quite simple. They approach politics with a clear strategy and economics with improvised tactics. The political approach is to unite the Hindu vote and the economic approach is to do what in cricket is called “play the ball on its merits”.

Thus whether it was the construction of the Ram temple or the deletion of Article 370 or the banning of triple talaq or CAA or NPR or empowering States to draw up their own OBC lists or whatever, the underlying strategy has always been the same: unite the Hindus. Marginalising the Muslims has been an element of that strategy. It has no intrinsic appeal to the BJP which needs their votes as well. The RSS, of course, is a different matter.

But now with the rise of Dattatreya Hosabale, who doesn’t believe that the Muslims should be second class citizens — whatever that means — the approach of the RSS to Muslims is about to change. This is very important because all the major national parties, with the exception of the Communists, have dumped them in substance. They only pay lip service. This is true of the Congress as well. There are no champions left of the Muslim cause. There is another compelling reason why the BJP and the RSS have to dilute the anti-Muslim stance. India needs money from the Muslim countries of West Asia for investment in infrastructure and they will invest only if the Sangh Parivar accommodates the Indian Muslims politically. After all, there are 20 crore of them. It will be interesting to see how this accommodation happens.

Economics tactics

One of the main criticisms of the BJP has been that it doesn’t have a coherent economic strategy. What this means actually is that it doesn’t have a strategy that the Washington Consensus economists of the 1990s can understand. The truth is that the BJP’s economic policies have been very successful without making any significant departure from the Washington Consensus. You only have to look at the numbers.

Thus, all the noise to the contrary, India remains nearly as open as it was in 2014. Its fiscal deficit is low. It is seeking to privatise as quickly as possible. It is keeping inflation low. The current account deficit is under control. It is providing essential goods to the poor. And, above all, it is using capital more efficiently.

So economic policy has remained largely unchanged but its language and implementation has become highly tactical. It is, if you like, what used to be called MBO in the 1970s — ‘management by objectives’ wherein you manage by identifying a problem and solving it rather than ignoring the problem in the hope that it will solve itself if the broad economic strategy is followed. That approach, as we know, failed completely in the past.

The problem, however, with this approach to economic issues is that it makes it impossible for the government to tom-tom its successes in an easily comprehensible way. The UPA, for example, would boast about a single number, GDP growth. The BJP government has no such single metric to point to. As a result it appears to be bumbling whereas it is not. In both cases appearances are deceptive.

Not only does the political strategy appear divisive, which places a premium on parties that talk about social unity, the economic tactics appear incoherent, allowing critics to ignore successes. Clearly the approach that worked before the pandemic has become counter-productive now.

On the political side by sticking to the strategy the BJP has allowed the emergence of regional leaders who can follow socially less responsible tactics. We can see this in UP. On the economic side it has allowed the Opposition to ask just one question: what have you done for employment? On this it has no alibis.

This is why the messaging has to change even if the substance remains the same. Politics must be countered by economics.

Why the BJP must worry

In the next two years the government will be tested in 16 Assembly elections and then the general election in 2024. Seven of these are to be held next year and nine the year after. No other government anywhere in the world has to face such a large number of elections.

To add to these complications there is the highly politically significant presidential election due next year. The BJP may find itself having to seek the support of small regional parties if it loses 50-75 seats in UP next year, as predicted by a poll last week.

It seems to have decided that the current Chief Minister is its best bet. But because he is a Thakur in a State where that is a sign of oppression he may well turn out to be a liability. Dalits, OBCs and Muslims make up 85 per cent of the voters.

To sum up, the BJP has to redesign its electoral strategies and tactics by recognising that no formula works for ever. As things stand the TINA factor is its main bet and given how the Opposition is, it is not a bad one.

Related Topics