Mother, Son and the Wily Ghost

What is the difference between cunning, shrewd, sly, astute, deceptive, crafty, artful, foxy and guileful?

Ask Pranab Mukherjee and/or P. Chidambaram. Or even Sonia Gandhi or Rahul Gandhi. They will tell you that there is none for one name that fits all these lovely adjectives: Manmohan Singh.

He has neutralised them all comprehensively and in a way they would never have thought possible.

In the case of Pranabda and PC, he has done it by drawing the blame to himself in L'affaire 2G Letter written by the Finance Ministry; and in the case of SG and RG, he has done it by ensuring that no one but Rahul is even remotely considered as an interim successor.

In full control

Most people, when asked, will tell you that Manmohan Singh exists as prime minister at the whim and fancy of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi. That may have been true in 2004 or even till the third quarter of 2005.

But, today, nothing could be further from the truth. The fact is that the cunning, shrewd, sly, astute, deceptive, crafty, artful, foxy and guileful old man has fixed them both. He is in full control, and he knows it. Moreover, they know it.

They have no choice but to continue with him till he decides to step down. And that could only be in July 2012 when Rashtrapati Bhavan falls vacant. Dr Singh wants that job and, at 79, he is entitled to it. But whether he gets it will depend on the outcome of the Assembly election in UP.

If the Congress manages to form a government in UP, or even manages to win enough number of seats, Rahul Gandhi would have “proved” that he is a mass leader in his own right, one to be reckoned with.

The path will be then cleared for him to become Prime Minister and to force an early election in the first half of 2013 on the perfectly legitimate grounds that he needs his own team.

The BJP under Advani will find it hard to come up with a fitting riposte. It needs Narendra Modi but will acknowledge it only after another resounding defeat.

If Rahul fails in UP, it will be business-as-usual. Manmohan Singh will continue as Prime Minister till 2014; Rahul will become Congress President and the 2014 general election will be a nightmare for the Congress.

Image reversal

One other interesting thing has happened. Until recently, Dr Singh was excoriated at home and praised abroad. Now that is getting reversed. In Cannes, at the G20 meeting, where only those with money mattered, he got a cold shoulder. Indeed, he had to cut short his stay in France because President Nicholas Sarkozy said he had no time to meet him.

But back home, quite imperceptibly, the image of a somnambulant, powerless, and ineffective prime minister is changing. To be sure, he will never be seen as an active, energetic and bouncy PM. But, equally certainly, Dr Singh is quietly asserting himself.

The UPA allies have understood this. They are retaliating by becoming somnambulant and ineffective. The Congress, too, has understood this and has stopped sniping at him from the sidelines. But the BJP is still hanging on to its only comfort factor: Manmohan Singh is somnambulant, powerless, and ineffective.

It should watch out. Dr Singh is often down but never out.

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