Why recruitments can be random

This is the time of the year when B-schools across the country conduct interviews for admitting candidates to their post-graduate management programs. It was while participating as a member-panellist during one such interview process that a realisation hit me. Many decisions that we take in our everyday life are random or at least appear random. Why is that so?

Suppose you like collecting household things used during early 1900s. You find that an old curiosity shop you frequently visit has more than 20 curios that you like.

How will you decide which ones to buy? If you are driven by the feeling of guilt due to spending too much money on such objects, you may choose, say, 5 curios from the 20 you like. Interestingly, you would chose 5 curios by comparing them with the other 15 articles that you like.

You may prefer a betel-leaf holder used during the 1920s, for instance, to a brass plate that was used during that period for serving dry fruits. But what is random about this decision?

Suppose during your visit to the old curiosity shop, the only object that you found interesting was the brass plate. You would not have hesitated to buy it. Why? You visited the shop with the intention of buying curios. And the brass plate was only object you liked. Besides, purchasing one article is unlikely to trigger guilt, which is the normal reaction you feel when you indulge.

Now, you will agree that finding 20 curios or just one that you like during your visit to the old curiosity shop is random.

Call it luck if you will. But whether you buy the brass plate or not depends not on whether you like the plate per se, but how it compares with other articles that you like during that visit. This is one reason why your house has many things that you liked much more when you bought them than now. Your investment decision often suffers from the same problem.

This brings us to the admission process. A study conducted by social scientists found that interviewers sometimes exhibit the same behaviour that you had at the old curiosity shop.

Chances of Success

That is, whether a candidate receives an admission to the program could depend on who her peers are on that day. A good candidate could well be rejected if she is preceded by many better candidates. Fortunately, most B-schools have objective criteria based on which candidates are selected.

This reduces the randomness in the candidate selection process. Is it possible for us to frame meaningful criteria to make all our purchase decisions non-random?

(The author is the founder of Navera Consulting. Feedback may be sent to >knowledge@thehindu.co.in )

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