Daily Rupee call: Go short below 74

The rupee (INR) today opened at 74.03 versus its previous close of 73.78, against the dollar (USD). It is testing the critical level of 74 and within arm’s reach of its all-time low at 74.48 versus the dollar. Currently, the year-to-date loss is at about 3.6 per cent.

On Friday, post a gap-down open, the rupee marked an intraday low of 74.04, but recovered marginally and closed at 73.78. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) continue to exit, and as on Friday, the net outflow for the month was at ₹13,138 crore as per the data by National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL). If this trend continues, rupee might weaken to all time low.

Foreign reserves:

The weekly statistical supplement released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) last Friday showed that the foreign reserves have increased well over the previous week. As per the report, the reserves have increased by $5.4 billion that is the total reserves increased to $481.5 billion from $476.1 billion. Foreign Currency Assets (FCA), the largest component of the reserves, went up by around $4.4 billion to $445.8 billion from $441.4 in the same period. The value of gold holdings increased to $30.7 billion compared to previous week’s $29.6 billion.

Dollar index:

The dollar index too has been declining over the past two weeks. The index is currently trading at 95.3 with the immediate support at 95.15 and 94.5; resistance levels on the upside are at 96 and 96.35.

Trade strategy:

While 74 may be a considerable support, the overall trend is against the rupee. The market sentiment is tilted towards risk-off, which is not a favourable scenario. For intraday, traders can sell the rupee with tight stop-loss if it breaches the support at 74 decisively.

Supports: 74.25 and 74.48

Resistances: 73.5 and 73.3