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To track severe cyclonic storms, such as Vardah, the Ministry of Earth Sciences on Monday commissioned a very high resolution (12 km) global deterministic weather prediction model for generating operational weather forecasts.
“The model has been on trial since September 2016. It has shown significant improvements in skill of daily weather forecasts. This model has been made operational from January 16, 2017,” an official release said.
The latest model replaces the earlier version that had a horizontal resolution of 25 km. “It was very helpful, especially in predicting the track and the intensity of the recent Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Vardah and the cold wave over the northern parts of India.”
The Ministry’s operational Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) will also be upgraded to 12 km, the Ministry said. The EPS is adopted to overcome the problem of uncertainties in the forecasts and involves the generation of multiple forecasts using slightly varying initial conditions.
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