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The deficient monsoon can hurt the Rabi crop even if overall Kharif crop production is unlikely to be affected and will be higher than the previous fiscal, said a report published by India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) on Thursday.
The report – titled ‘Monsoon Gazing Ends’ – comes a day after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported a 15 per cent deficiency in rainfall across the country.
“In view of the total area sown under Kharif crops reaching 99.87 million hectares (mh) on September 4, 2015, which is 1.93 mh higher than last year’s, Ind-Ra expects the overall Kharif output this fiscal to be still better than in the last fiscal,” the report said.
The inference deviates from a mid-August study done by Crisil Research which highlighted the pressure on profitability of farm output and identified 5 crops – jowar, soyabean, tur dal, maize and cotton – as particularly at risk.
Water storage levels Kharif output, according to Ind-Ra, was likely to be higher due to increased acreage and better water storage levels (as on September 2) than last year in major foodgrain producing States such as Punjab, Rajasthan, West Bengal, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh.
Reservoir levels in southern India, which recorded a 17 per cent deficit in rainfall as of September 9, had fallen to 33.2 per cent, it noted. According to the Central Water Commission, total storage levels are pegged at 92.92 billion cubic metres (bcm), 59 per cent of capacity, as of September 3.
Devendra Kumar Pant, Chief Economist and Senior Director of Public Finance at Ind-Ra, said that States which had received sufficient rainfall will make up any shortfall in output from other States.
“Karnataka, as a whole, has recorded deficient rainfall and coarse cereals’ production is likely to be lower. But Rajasthan has received excess rain, particularly in the western part. So total output should be the same if not more,” he said.
Pulses inflation While the impact of the sub-par monsoon is likely to be muted in terms of rural spending due to the rising share of non-agricultural income in rural earnings, food inflation needed to be monitored.
“Wholesale pulses inflation in July 2015 was 35.8 per cent. Although higher acreage under pulses this fiscal would help in containing inflation, weakening of the rupee will make import of pulses costlier,” the report said.
On an average, India imports between three and four million tonnes (mt) of pulses every year to augment domestic production of 18-19 mt.
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