BSE Sensex tumbled more than 500 points or 2.7 per cent from its intra-day high of 19,322.2 to its intra-day low of 18,793.9 before making some recovery to finish the session at 18,861 on Thursday. It has plummeted 290.8 points or 1.5 per cent from its previous close of 19,152.4 to 18,861.5 levels as Budget 2013 disappointed investors. Sensex decisively breached its significant support at 19,000 and is hovering well below its 21- and 50-day moving averages.

From the recent peak of 20,203.60 registering in late January, the index has declined 6.6 per cent. Short-term trend for the Sensex is down. Further decline can find support at around 18,590 levels. Next key support for the index is at around 18,285 levels. On the other hand, important resistance are at 19,000 and at 19,460. Strong rally above 19,660 is required to alter its short-term downtrend and take it higher to 20,000 mark.

S&P CNX Nifty plunged 103.8 points or 1.8 per cent to end the session at 5,693 on Thursday. It decisively broke through its key long-term support at 5,750 levels on the day. Short-term trend has been down for Nifty since registering peak at 6,111.8 in late January this year. The index is hovering well below its 21- and 50-day moving averages.

The daily indicators and oscillators are featuring in the bearish zone implying downward momentum. Nifty has immediate support at 5650 levels. A strong decline below this level will test subsequent support in the band between 5,526 and 5,550. Significant resistance for the index are positioned at 5,750 and then at 5,850.

MCX (Rs 1145)

Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) was volatile in the budget session. As the Finance Minister read out the proposal to impose commodity transaction tax, the stock dived 8 per cent to register its intraday low and rebounded smartly within a few minutes. The stock zoomed almost 7 per cent to mark the day’s high of Rs 1195.9 but ended the session by gaining Rs 26.7 or 2.4 per cent with extraordinary volume.

The stock has been on a medium-term downtrend from its November 2012 peak of Rs 1,613 levels. In early February, the stock decisively breached its key support at Rs 1,300 and continued to decline. However, the stock is currently testing important support at around Rs 1,100. Its daily relative strength index is displaying positive divergence indicating a potential trend reversal.

An upward reversal from present levels will take the stock higher to Rs 1,214 levels. Next important resistance is at Rs 1,300. To alter the medium-term downtrend, the stock needs to rally beyond Rs 1,400. In that scenario, the stock can rally to Rs 1,480 and to Rs 1,530 in the medium-term. Nevertheless, strong fall below Rs 1,100 will pull the stock down to Rs 1,025 and Rs 1,000 support zone. Strong downward break through of the support zone will pave way for a downfall to Rs 900 in the medium-term.

Suzlon Energy (Rs 16)

Suzlon nose-dived 44 per cent to mark new low of Rs 13.5 on reports that its promoters sold some stake on the Budget day. Its trading volume was extraordinary. It finished the session by plunging 33.8 per cent. Trends in all time-frames for the stock are down. Last session, it decisively breached its key long-term supports at Rs 21 and Rs 18. The stock is testing key support at Rs 15.

A strong dive below this support will pull the stock down to Rs 13.5 or to sub Rs 10 levels in the ensuing trading sessions. But, an upward reversal will take the stock to Rs 18 and then to Rs 20-21 range in the medium-term. Only a strong break through of the second resistance will revise the downtrend and take it northwards to Rs 24 and to Rs 27 in the intermediate-term.

UCO Bank (Rs 56.7)

The stock plummeted 10.7 per cent, emphatically breaking through a significant long-term support at Rs 62 on Thursday. This fall has reinforced the stock's long-term downtrend that has been in place from its November 2012 peak of Rs 152. Medium as well as short-term trend are also down. The stock is hovering well below its 50- and 200-day moving averages. Both daily and weekly indicators are featuring in the bearish zone implying downward momentum.

In the medium-term the stock can prolong its downtrend and reach Rs 50 initially and then Rs 45. To alter the medium-term downtrend, the stock needs to decisively move above Rs 75 levels. Key immediate resistance are pegged at Rs 62 and then Rs 67.

Reliance Infrastructure (Rs 419.5)

Breaking through a significant long-term support at around Rs 440, the stock tumbled 9 per cent in the previous session. The stock was in a bread sideways consolidation phase from May 2012 in the range between Rs 440 and Rs 570. The recent fall has strengthened the stock's long as well as medium-term downtrend. The stock is hovering way below its 50 as well as 200-day moving averages. Both daily and weekly indicators are featuring in the negative territory imply bearish momentum. Continuation of the stock's downtrend will find support at Rs 370 in the medium-term. Next important support below Rs 370 is at Rs 335.

The stock needed to strongly rally above Rs 510 to alter its medium-term downtrend, to take the stock higher to Rs 570. Only a strong move above Rs 570 will reinforce bullish momentum and push the stock northwards to Rs 660 in the long-term. Immediate resistance to watch are positioned at Rs 440, Rs 470 and Rs 500.

(This article was published on February 28, 2013)
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