A fresh typhoon developing to the East of the Philippines and forecast to grow as a super typhoon, is likely to have an adverse impact on the arrival of the North-East monsoon along India's East Coast.

This is because unlike typhoon Khanun that travelled west and impacted the Vietnam coast, the emerging super typhoon would likely move away off the Philippines towards the south of Japan.

PACIFIC TYPHOON LURKS

This morning, typhoon Lan lurked midway between the Central Philippines and Guam and is tracking to the North in the open West Pacific waters, where it would undergo rapid intensification.

It would steer gradually to the East-North-East to become a super typhoon, clocking a maximum of 240 km/hr at its peak before weakening as it heads towards Yokosuka/Yokota in South Japan.

It will be a category-3 typhoon with wind speeds of 185 km/hr, as measured on the Saffir-Simpson scale, while it prepares for landfall over the twin Japanese cities by October 23.

Apparently, the North-East monsoon it is thought would wait until that time to make an onset along the East Coast of India, a good two to three days behind schedule.

While west-moving typhoons in the North-West Pacific/South China Sea have boosted the prevailing North-East monsoon in India, those travelling in the opposite direction have had an adverse impact.

Weather watchers have already factored in a delay beyond the normal window of October 15-20 for the North-East monsoon, and typhoon Lan may just have gone to substantiate it.

WITHDRAWAL OF MONSOON

Meanwhile, a remnant circulation from erstwhile typhoon Khanun is forecast to drop anchor over the South-East Bay of Bengal to aid this denouement.

Predecessor South-West monsoon has been expediting its withdrawal from the northern parts of India to make way for the monsoon in reverse (North-East monsoon).

This morning, India Met Department (IMD) said the South-West monsoon has withdrawn from almost half of the country to the North of the Vindhyas.

It has since signed off from the North-Eastern States, parts of North-West Bay of Bengal, parts of North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and even parts of Vidarbha.

The line of withdrawal passes through Kohima, Kalingapatnam, Nizamabad, Aurangabadand Dahanu. This advanced stage of withdrawal may also be restraining the prevailing well-marked 'low' in the Bay.

Dry and cooler winds emanating from overland can compromise the structure of the developing storm and could be a limiting factor with respect to its further intensification.

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