India Met Department has confirmed that a low-pressure area will spin up over east-central and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea by Sunday.

The area of the disturbance is around the Lakshadweep Islands and not far-off from the west coast of India.

GOOD AUGURY

Formation of the ‘low’ in the Arabian Sea is a good augury for the monsoon in as much as it would help pull in the flows with vigour and strengthen the system as a whole.

It will translate into a good spell of rain for the southwest coast to begin with, as also for interior peninsula covering Kerala, Karnataka and parts of Tamil Nadu.

What weather watchers will be concerned about will be the likely track the weather system takes for onward movement after intensification.

Sea-surface temperatures of beyond 30 degree Celsius are just right for its rapid intensification since warm waters feed the system with the required moisture to grow in strength.

But seawaters are less warm towards the west-northwest in the Arabian Sea, and away from the Indian coast, where the system is forecast to be headed.

So indications are that the prospective cyclone may weaken ahead of landfall.

WRONG TRACK

India Met Department projections favour the intensification of the ‘low’ as a severe cyclone, going away in a west-northwest direction to hit the Oman coast by June 14.

This is a ‘wrong track’ for India since, as witnessed few times in the past, a prospective cyclone materialising during the onset phase would take away entire monsoon flows with it.

There are other models which see the system moving towards the north in the Arabian Sea along but off the coast till the latitude of Porbandar and then veering away.

Even this would track would benefit India since the monsoon flows would have followed cue, fanning in their moisture into interior peninsula.

Interestingly, the Climate Prediction Centre of the US has forecast heavy rains for this week and heavier rains for the one that follows.

Related Topics
comment COMMENT NOW