ANALYSIS. Why Cong, BJP are scaling down the seat target

After the initial brouhaha and bloated claims, Gujarat’s ruling BJP and main Opposition Congress have scaled down their targets for the State elections next month, with both parties responding to ground realities and mounting challenges.

In particular, the BJP, which had set itself a stunning target of winning “at least” 150 of the 182 Assembly seats — the Congress had won 149 in 1985 — was the first to make a ‘reality check’. BJP President Amit Shah, who had issued the call to achieve the target, issued a ‘revised target’ on Sunday, asking party rank and file to ensure that the party wins “two-thirds” of the House’s strength (or 121 seats). This is nearly the same number that the BJP has now (Keshubhai Patel’s Gujarat Parivartan Party later merged with the BJP).

The Congress, too, has scaled down its expectations. Its State unit chief Bharatsinh Solanki had initially set a target of winning “at least” 120 seats. After the 2012 elections, the party had 57 MLAs, of which 13 members have either quit the party or were expelled after Shankersinh Vaghela’s rebellion in August. Thus, the Congress’ effective strength in the outgoing Assembly is 44.

Party sources now say the Congress has asked its leaders to ensure the party wins at least one seat more per district, over and above its numbers in the outgoing Assembly. With Gujarat having 33 districts, the Congress is, therefore, targeting anywhere between 77 (44+33) and 90 (57+33) seats. In both cases, the party will not be able to form the government, for which a party needs a minimum of 92 out of 182 seats!

There are other reasons bothering the parties. Many weddings are being planned across Gujarat on December 14 — the date of the second phase of voting — the last day before the onset of an ‘inauspicious’ month or Kumurta . The BJP has directed its cadre to ensure that 100 per cent voting is completed by 10.30 am on that day, particularly in North Gujarat, the home turf of both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Man Friday, Amit Shah.

Being the ruling party for 22 years, the BJP is also facing anti-incumbency, and the party is expected to drop around half its 121 legislators. The party has been doing this for the last two decades, in the belief that anti-incumbency had more to do with the inefficiency of its elected representatives than the (lack of) achievements of its government. While the party battles multiple cracks in its voter base following revolts by the Patidars, the Dalits and the OBCs, another voter group threatens it: the Karadia Rajputs are up in arms against Gujarat BJP chief Jitu Vaghani over a local dispute in the Saurashtra region and have threatened to defeat him. There are reports that he may not, therefore, contest at all.

Even the Congress is facing similar problems, particularly from the two ambitious “Young Turks” it has roped in. Hardik Patel, who, like Alpesh Thakore, communicates directly with Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi — he even ignored Kapil Sibal’s remarks on the issue of Patidar reservation — has been keeping the Opposition party on tenterhooks after expiry of his many ‘deadlines’. He had reportedly asked for a whopping 50 tickets to be given to Patidars, but is now believed to have scaled down the number to just 10. With nothing having been finalised so far, Patel even took potshots at Rahul, without naming him directly, when he told a Patidar meeting at Mehsana on Sunday that while his meetings attracted full crowds, the “other leaders’” had empty chairs.

On the other hand, Alpesh has been announcing Thakore candidates on his own, even before the Congress could do so! After announcing the candidature of his close aide, Gemiben Thakore, from the Vav constituency in Banaskantha district, reports that Alpesh himself could contest from Viramgam has upset senior Congress leaders, including former MP Jagdish Thakore and ex-MLA Baldevji Thakore, and triggered resentment in local units. The local leaders have accused him of bypassing the GPCC and talking directly to Rahul. According to reports, Alpesh has demanded at least 15 seats, which the Congress finds extremely difficult.

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