Cold War: Season 2

No, but the drama here could impress just as much as the Emmy award-winning TV series. Crimea’s decision to leave Ukraine and join Russia is making relations between Vladimir Putin and the West frosty again. The Cold War reference has to do with the 25th anniversary of the end of the original superpower race, making this an ironic time for old disagreements to resurface.

The rest of Ukraine, not to mention the US and the EU, has been crying hoarse that the referendum in Crimea was illegal and didn’t adhere to Ukraine’s constitution. Regardless, 97 per cent of voters ticked the box next to option one — to join Russia.

Ukraine was one of the 15 countries that were formed when the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991. The Crimean peninsula (until this referendum) was an autonomous republic within Ukraine with its own parliament. But Russia always had a difficult time letting go of Ukraine. Reports now refer to a comment Putin is believed to have made to the second President Bush: “You have to understand, George. Ukraine is not even a country.”

Over half of Crimea’s population is Russian-speaking, while ethnic Ukrainians and the Muslim Tatars form large minority groups. (The minority groups are said to have boycotted the referendum).

The region has centuries of history of cultural tugs-of-war among these communities. Critics say Ukraine failed to properly integrate Crimea into its folds since gaining control of the region; so pro-Russia sentiment and distrust of ethnic Ukrainians has always simmered here. But there are economic reasons as well. Crimea is floating on a fortune of oil reserves off the coast of the Black Sea.

You’re right, it did. Civil unrest in Kiev, Ukraine’s capital, began in November last year when President Viktor Yanukovych chose to sign trade deals with Russia over the EU. This didn’t go down well in pro-West Kiev. Violent protests erupted and Yanukovych was forced to flee. Kremlin described these events as a fascist coup, prompting fears among the pro-Russia residents of Crimea. Within a month, Russia moved its troops into Crimea and hurried along the referendum, effectively shoving the actual Kiev protests about who the country should trade with out of the spotlight.

The EU and the US have imposed travel bans and frozen assets of top Russian leaders and promise to introduce economic sanctions if Russian provocations continue. Some believe Russia is now eyeing eastern Ukraine, which also has favourable demographics. But in this game of checkers, the West won’t push too hard. Russia is the only country still able to negotiate with Syria, where a civil war has been raging for three years. Antagonising Putin could make him pull the plug on that.

Both the Winter Olympics and Crimea are assertions of Russian might. Crimea, however, is winning Putin even less fans than the curious double toilets at Sochi Olympics did.