The Congress deserved to lose, but that it would be demolished with such fury, particularly in Delhi and Rajasthan, is surprising. In Delhi it has been reduced to a paltry eight, and touched a historic low of 21 in Rajasthan. Ironically, the only State it performed decently was Chhattisgarh, where its leadership was wiped out in the Naxal attack.

One spectacular factor of this election is that a novice, without money or muscle power, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) got a rich haul of 28 seats on its debut. Barely a year old, it took away a whopping 15 per cent of the Congress vote, and chipped away 2.3 per cent from the BJP’s 2008 vote, to deny it even a slim majority. Interestingly, in Rajasthan, a fig leaf the Congress can grab is that its vote share fell by only 3 per cent. But it got only 21 seats against the BJP’s 162.

Modi magic So, is the Narendra Modi magic responsible for the BJP’s impressive performance? Of course; whether you give him direct credit as BJP President Rajnath Singh did, or make a fine analytical point as senior BJP leader Arun Jaitley did, when he said that Modi’s naming as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate “energised the party cadres” to work hard for such a singular show.

But one has to bear in mind that both MP and Rajasthan have a strong BJP presence. Vasundhara Raje lost the 2008 election thanks to infighting and factionalism within her own party. And Shivraj Chauhan has governed MP well enough to get a third term. But without Modi’s relentless rallies and impressive rhetoric, perhaps the numbers in MP and Rajasthan might have been lower. But his magic could not help BJP either sweep Delhi or Chhattisgarh.

The Modi diehard fans will of course argue that as the urban middle class and youngsters are drawn to Modi’s promise of development, but for his campaigning here, the AAP might have been in the driver’s seat.

If there was any consolation for a devastated Sheila Dixit, it lay in the rare tweets buried amidst a mountain on Twitter hailing the BJP’s victory and jeering the Congress’s debacle. These thanked the three-time Delhi Chief Minister for making Delhi a better city.

Sheila’s ouster So why did she lose, and lose so badly that a newcomer like Arvid Kejriwal could snatch away even her own seat? Charges of corruption against her in the organisation of the Commonwealth Games in Delhi dented her image. Then there was the gang rape of a young woman in Delhi last December, triggering a storm of protests on how unsafe Delhi had become for its women.

Add to these two the monumental and debilitating burden of the anger and disgust that has welled up in the minds and hearts of ordinary Indians against the Congress-led UPA. A plethora of negatives, such as corrupt, inefficient, indifferent, stealthy, somnolent, etc come to mind when you think of this non-performing government. And no prizes for guessing which State Assembly would remind the voters most of the UPA government.

Coming to Kejriwal and AAP, the day after, some of the halo around him and his party dimmed when they stubbornly insisted they’d have no truck with either the Congress or the BJP to help government formation.

One can understand his logic that the Delhi voters had not voted for AAP so generously, even though not decisively, to shake hands with either of the “corrupt” parties. But surely the Delhi voters would not prevent him from at least beginning or participating in a dialogue to explore the possibility of government formation in a hung Assembly. It is very easy, and even irresponsible, to say, have another election. After all, elections are held with taxpayers’ money and not corrupt politicians’ ill-gotten wealth. A vibrant democracy that allows a novice like AAP to make such a spectacular debut also expects him to facilitate government-making.

And Kejriwal needn’t take the support of the Congress to form a government, form a coalition with the BJP or even support it from outside. For one who now wears the label of ushering in a fresh new direction in our democracy, why can’t he say he would not topple a minority BJP government which makes a sincere effort to give good governance, even while sitting in the Opposition?

Unfortunately, one caught a whiff of the arrogance that has brought the Congress to this disgraceful position in Kejriwal Sunday evening. When a TV anchor sought his reaction to Rahul Gandhi’s statement that the Congress will learn from AAP how to connect with the voters, he said: “I don’t need a certificate from Rahul Gandhi”. Humility in victory, did you say?

Interesting sub-text One of the interesting sub-texts of this election is that of the eight Congress MLAs who won in Delhi, six are from the minority community – four Muslim and two Sikh. Both AAP and Congress had fielded six Muslims, and the four Congress Muslim winners are from Okhla, Mustafabad, Seelampur and Ballimaran, each of which has 30-35 per cent Muslim voters.

Two of these – including Haroon Yusuf — were Ministers in the Sheila Dixit cabinet.

Incidentally, Matia Mahal, the fifth constituency with about the same Muslim population, elected Shoaib Iqbal, from the JD(U).

The biggest irony is that for the first time the Congress won’t have a single Muslim MLA in the Rajasthan Assembly; it had fielded 16 and all of them lost. Against this, the BJP will have two Muslim legislators!

But however jubilant the BJP might be about the 2014 polls, such spectacular success doesn’t seem replicable in the General Elections. As it moves from Northern India to the south and north-east, the BJP faces stiff competition from powerful regional parties.

Except the Shiv Sena, Akali Dal and possibly the AIADMK post polls, it is bereft of allies. In Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, it doesn’t have much of a presence and whether Karnataka will swing back so quickly remains to be seen.

The other hurdle it faces is the minority vote. If in a small State like Delhi, Muslims could give India’s oldest party half of its MLAs, standing by it in its moment of shame, imagine what the Muslim vote, totally disenchanted with the Samajwadi Party after the Muzaffarnagar carnage, can do if it votes tactically and embraces the Congress in Uttar Pradesh from where the BJP desperately needs a rich haul to make it to 200.

In Delhi, both the SP and BSP had fielded 11 candidates each; not one of them was elected.

In Muslim circles, discussion has already begun on the Madhya Pradesh Assembly having only one miserable Muslim MLA. He is the lone winner from the five the Congress had fielded; BJP had fielded only one.

So…. pictuure abhi baaki hai mere do st…

rasheeda.bhagat@thehindu.co.in

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