The announcement of Donald Trump as the Republican party’s presidential candidate has added to the overall climate of socio-economic uncertainty generated by Brexit. If Britain’s decision has already prompted the IMF to reduce its world growth forecast by 0.1 per cent to 3.1 per cent for 2016, it may well revise its 2017 forecasts in the event of Trump entering the White House this November. The reasons are not far to seek. Like the Brexiters, Trump has cynically tapped into a growing apprehension against immigration and free trade. His brand of economics will be counterproductive for an America still struggling to recover its pre-2008 momentum. Rising tariffs and curbs on labour movement will hurt the competitiveness of the US economy, its innovative spirit and dynamism. Besides, Trump’s view that the free movement of goods, capital and people has robbed the US people of jobs misses the real problem that has bedevilled US manufacturing: the overvalued dollar in relation to the renminbi and the yen, thanks to currency manipulation by China in particular. Globalisation works to everyone’s advantage so long as the underlying rules are fair — Trump and his Brexit counterparts, by railing against migration, are missing out on the real problems hurting them.

America has thrived as a land of opportunity for all. Now, like Europe, it is an insecure society, wracked by the fear of Islamic terror, chaotic violence and what seems like a never-ending economic slump. Trump’s generally xenophobic politics, which finds a resonance in Europe, is a product of these circumstances. Instead of reaching out to the disaffected in a divided America, he has sought to capitalise on the angst by targeting specific ethnic and religious communities. An inward looking America will lose its ‘soft’ power as an open society and a land of opportunity.

India is understandably edgy at the prospect of Trump becoming President. The US accounts for over two-thirds of its $110-120 billion IT exports; a further clampdown on H1B visas, apart from the recent hike in their fees, could hurt IT revenues and employment. A protectionist US president is unlikely to take a sympathetic view of India’s livelihood concerns underlying its positions on agriculture and intellectual property. However, Trump’s anti-China stance and hardline position on West Asia could work geo-politically to India’s advantage. Trump’s rise underscores the pitfalls of globalisation without checks and balances. Corrective measures, if taken now, will also help in the restoration of the much needed middle ground in world politics as well.

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