Yamaha Motor has upped its sales projections for India this calendar year (January-December) at 8.88 lakh two-wheelers compared to 7.86 lakh in 2016.

In the process, it will be third on the Japanese automaker’s list after Indonesia and Vietnam, which have been pegged at 1.5 million and 9.5 lakh units respectively. Trailing way behind are Thailand with 3.06 lakh units and Taiwan with 2.91 lakh units.

These numbers were part of Yamaha Motor’s half-yearly results, which were made public in Japan a little over a week ago. While it is only a matter of time before India overtakes Vietnam, the interesting part about the forecasts is the gradual turnaround of the ASEAN region where the numbers for this calendar year are distinctly higher than 2016 levels.

Whether this momentum will continue into the remainder of the decade is yet to be seen even while India is clearly on the fast track. In fact, going by the present growth rate, the country could well overtake Indonesia by 2020 even while the difference between the two is still substantial at over six lakh units.

Experts believe that the ASEAN region has pretty much reached a stage of maturity for Japanese two-wheeler makers like Honda and Yamaha, while there is still immense potential in India. Yamaha’s market projections for 2017 support this premise given that India’s overall two-wheeler market is comfortably ahead of the rest at 18.7 million two-wheelers (Jan-Dec).

In contrast, Indonesia is way behind at 5.4 million units while Taiwan, another favourite hunting ground, is forecast to finish this calendar with a two-wheeler output of 3.3 million units. Growth has largely been flat in the ASEAN region while it continues to log a hectic pace in India.

The challenge for Yamaha, though, is to take on the might of established players like Honda and Hero, which rule the roost with combined sales of around 12 million units annually. Additionally, there is strong local competition coming in from TVS Motor and Bajaj Auto, which are ahead of Yamaha. How the company copes with this reality and surges ahead remains to be seen in the coming years.

Yet, Yamaha believes that there is immense potential in India, which goes beyond its domestic market alone. It is expected to play a big role in servicing Africa, which Yamaha has identified as its next growth engine; especially markets like Nigeria. However, Africa has seen a fair degree of economic volatility in recent times that has affected other two-wheeler makers too.

Yamaha is also betting big on India as a source for supply of components to its other global operations. After all, it has a robust vendor base, which offers the best mix in costs and quality. Many of these suppliers already meet the needs of a host of OEMS for their global programmes and Yamaha, likewise, is keen on making the most of their competencies.

The company has also been pegging away with its scooters to build its base in India and models like the Fascino have been doing quite well. While motorcycles still take up a large chunk of total two-wheeler sales, scooters are fast catching up thanks largely to the momentum unleashed by the Honda Activa.

With connectivity now becoming a top priority in small towns and villages, residents are beginning to increasingly depend on scooters as the most comfortable mode of transport. With public transport also coming under pressure in cities, scooters have emerged the best bet for women commuters and this is where companies like Yamaha are pulling out all stops to boost volumes.

Going forward, it will be interesting to see if the company’s recent alliance with Honda will have implications for the Indian market. For the moment, this has been confined to the 50 cc scooter space in Japan but there is no telling why the two former rivals will not explore opportunities jointly in markets like India. One area that could come under the radar is electric mobility where a Honda-Yamaha collaboration could throw up some interesting solutions. Whether this actually happens is the million dollar question.

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