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International model forecasts continue to favour scattered rain along a northeast-southwest gradient along the east coast and immediate interior on Sunday and Monday.
Moisture incursion has been indicated both from equatorial Indian Ocean (south of the peninsula) as well as from the coastal waters of the Bay of Bengal. This is expected to fuel the precipitation along the coast.
NO CIRCULATION
Contrary to forecasts, there is no forecast of any circulation spinning up in the Bay waters; it would just amount to a ?perturbation' of available moisture under the influence of easterly winds.
On the other hand, some models indicated the possibility of such a circulation doing the rounds over peninsular south and dropping some rain.
A feeble western disturbance is forecast to affect the western Himalayan region by the weekend.
Forecasts show the system getting accentuated presumably by residual moisture from a prevailing ?active' western disturbance fanned up further by warmer easterly winds from the Bay.
WESTERLY INFLUENCE
This is what could likely trigger the rains along the coast and immediate interior, which India Meteorological Department (IMD) sees would be confined to Orissa, Chhattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh.
An IMD outlook on Wednesday afternoon said that the ?active' western disturbance would continue to affect western Himalayan region and the Indo-Gangetic plains on Thursday and the Northeastern States during the next three days.
An IMD heavy weather alert said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Uttar Pradesh, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim on Thursday.
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Arunachal Pradesh and Assam during on Thursday and Friday.
Isolated thunder squalls and hailstorms have been forecast over Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim on Thursday and over Assam and Arunachal Pradesh on Thursday and Friday.
RAIN, SNOW
Meanwhile, the last 24 hours ending Thursday morning saw widespread rain or snow being reported from Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand and scattered over Jammu and Kashmir.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers has also occurred over Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and east Rajasthan; scattered over Punjab, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh; and isolated over Bihar and north Madhya Pradesh.
Minimum temperatures have fallen by 1-3 degree Celsius over Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, west Uttar Pradesh and north Madhya Pradesh as the influence of the away-moving ?active' westerly system wanes.
MERCURY FALL
They are expected to fall by another 2-4 degree Celsius over northwest and adjoining central India during the next three days, the IMD outlook said.
The lowest minimum temperature of 9 degree Celsius overnight on Wednesday was recorded at Erinpura Road (Rajasthan) in the plains of the country.
Satellite pictures showed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of western Himalayan region and Uttar Pradesh.
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