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Updated seasonal forecasts from at least four major global models seemed to suggest normal to slightly above normal rainfall during the impending monsoon, with odds favouring a late-season burst.
These are initial forecasts, and it needs to be seen whether the respective models continue to maintain their confidence in subsequent update in May and June.
None of them indicated any significant deficiency in the farming heartland (including northwest India) though below normal anomalies are possible in parts of east, east-central and northeast India.
DORMANT BAY
The consensus view emerging in the April outlook suggests an above normal rainfall anomaly for the western parts of the country, which is normally considered a La Nina fallout.
This is interesting viewed in the context of consensus forecast indicating that the prevailing La Nina may relapse into ‘neutral' phase and the odd one suggesting a revival of the phenomenon later in the year. Large parts of the Bay of Bengal could remain dormant in the run-up to the onset, says an outlook from the Tokyo Climate Centre (TCC) under the Japan Meteorological Agency.
LAG IN BAY
This is likely to continue into June, translating into varying rainfall deficiencies in east-central and adjoining east India. But the Arabian Sea arm of the monsoon is shown to be holding up well with its solo run during this phase.
The Bay may get into the act in July, and backed up with continued strong showing in the Arabian Sea, rainfall gains are indicated for north peninsular India and adjoining west India (west Madhya Pradesh, Konkan-Mumbai and Gujarat).
US FORECASTS
The TCC verdict for the three-month (May-June-July) period was ‘slightly below normal to normal' rains during the first phase of monsoon, up to which forecasts were available. The US-based International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society, too, seemed to suggest a none-too-spectacular beginning for the annual rainy season for India.
It derived enhanced probabilities for ‘normal' rainfall for June-July-August and ‘normal to above normal' rains, especially for western parts of central India and western India during July-August-September.
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