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Heavy rainfall has been forecast at one or two places over Kerala and Lakshadweep on Friday.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) outlook said that rains would continue at least until Sunday before reducing in intensity.
FRESH WAVE
But it has also indicated that a fresh easterly wave, travelling from east across the Bay of Bengal, would drive more rain into parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
Meanwhile, global forecasts are of the view that the seas around peninsular tip would witness weather activity through the rest of the month. Southwest Bay of Bengal (off Tamil Nadu), equatorial Indian Ocean (around Sri Lanka) and southeast Arabian Sea (off Kerala) would stay charged up in this manner.
The upshot is that away-weather systems may travel towards these regions erupting in rains or get generated ‘in situ’ in these basins. In either case, adjoining southern peninsula (Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and parts of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh) may benefit from spill over rains.
CYCLONE PULSES
The proceedings might be set off with a tropical cyclone forecast to form just south of equator over the next four days.
According to a leading Asia-based storm-tracker, this would send in a ‘pulse’ into South Bay of Bengal, later hurtling towards Sri Lanka and Southeast Tamil Nadu coast. This outlook has been corroborated by the Global Forecast System model of the US Navy as also by its Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System.
Meanwhile, a storm materialising in northwest Pacific is forecast to enter South China Sea and send in another ‘pulse’ into extreme southeast Bay of Bengal. It is later shown as intensifying but will head towards Myanmar/Bangladesh coast, as per initial assessment. Both these systems are expected to keep the Bay of Bengal basin, and by extension equatorial Indian Ocean and southeast Arabian Sea, in a state of flux during the rest of the month.
On Thursday, the IMD located a trough of low lying extended from Comorin area to East-central Arabian Sea with a circulation sitting over coastal Karnataka. Last 24 hours ending in the morning saw rainfall being reported from Kerala, Odisha and at one or two places over Tamil Nadu.
Satellite imagery showed presence of rain-bearing clouds over Southeast Arabian Sea, Comorin area, Southeast Bay of Bengal, South Andaman Sea and extreme south peninsula.
> vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in
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