Wet weather may extend to third week of this month

The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) sees the occasionally wet weather over northwest India, east, east-central and northeast India persisting well into the third week of this month.

Importantly, it finds a fresh vigour in the rains over peninsular India, especially Kerala and adjoining central and southern Tamil Nadu during this period.

This would come about as the Bay of Bengal warms up to touch off activity over southeast Arabian Sea as well, as per the forecast outlook.

A leading OLR (outgoing long-wave radiation) tracker has observed that values for outgoing radiation escaping the surface getting increasingly negative from April 11.

Negative OLR values signal the presence of cloudiness, and increasing cloud cover is indicated for a 10-day stretch from April 16.

But a Global Forecast System (GFS) model forecast said that the precipitation would be less than the climatological normal at least until April 21.

Meanwhile, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update during the 24 hours ending on Thursday morning said that fairly widespread light to moderate rain or snow was reported from northwest and east India.

Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh benefited the most in this manner while the rains were isolated over Uttarakhand, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Orissa and Vidarbha.

This is even as a prevailing western disturbance exited the region as quickly as it made its entry on Wednesday, leaving the field open for a successor system waiting its turn over north Pakistan.

The IMD expected the fresh system to make its impact over western Himalayan region mainly from Friday.

Meanwhile, an upper air cyclonic circulation left behind by the previous system has managed to get a move to the east and lain over northeast Rajasthan and neighbourhood on Thursday evening.

Another upper air cyclonic circulation had sprung up over Gujarat on Thursday morning, which was traced to over southwest Madhya Pradesh by the evening.

Unlike on previous days when southbound upper air troughs were directed from circulations over east India, Thursday saw the honour going to the one over southwest Madhya Pradesh.