Agri Business

Monsoon heads for another peak as fifth ‘low’ brews

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on August 18, 2020

Rain outlook until August 19. Credit: The Weather Company

70 per cent chances for La Nina, says Australian agency

The monsoon is shaping up to lash Central and North-West India vigorously with a prevailing low-pressure area ceding place for what appears to be a virulent successor system rearing in the North Bay of Bengal as early as tomorrow (Wednesday). A preparatory cyclonic circulation has already formed over North-East Bay of Bengal on Tuesday.

Seasonal rainfall trends here may have also received a significant boost farther away from the monsoon theatre when the Australia Bureau of Meteorology upgraded the Tropical Pacific status to La Nina alert on Tuesday. A ‘La Nina alert status’ indicates the chance of La Nina forming in 2020 is around 70 per cent - roughly three times the average likelihood.

La Nina phenomenon is the alter ego of conventional monsoon killer El Nino and is marked by a warming of the Tropical Central and West Pacific relative to the East, causing evaporation from the waters to accelerate, convection to consolidate, clouds to form and storminess and rainfall to enhance over a region closest to the core of the Asian monsoon system.

Very heavy rain forecast

Back home, the 24 hours ending on Tuesday morning saw heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls being reported from Gujarat, Konkan and Goa while it was heavy to very heavy over Assam, Meghalaya, Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Madhya Pradesh, Saurashtra, Kutch, Madhya Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh and Coastal Karnataka; and heavy over Himachal Pradesh, Marathawada, Vidarbha, Telangana, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.

The significant amounts of rainfall (in cm) received are Tapi-28; Surat-25; Matheran, Raigarh and Satara-21 each; Mawsynram-20; Raisen-19; Kolhapur and Koyna-18 each; Malanjkhand-15; Mungeli-14; Okha and Bilaspur-13 each; Udupi, Palghar, Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg-12 each; Cherrapunji-11; Mandla-10; Panvel and Dindori-9 each; South Goa, Nanded, Ahmedabad and Mahabaleshwar-8 each; Dharmshala, Guna, Vidisha, Damoh, Pune, Gadchiroli, Pithoragarh, Waynad, Adilabad and Bhavnagar-7 each.

Clouds mass up over Rajasthan

This is even as a remnant of the previous low is determined to carry on from where it is ended on Monday, setting up humongous clouds over Rajasthan and parts of Punjab; Madhya Pradesh and parts of Maharashtra; Jharkhand and West Bengal; and late into Tuesday monsoon over Khavdia, Gandhidham, Jamnagar and Bhavnagar in Gujarat.

The South Peninsula on Tuesday was practically devoid of clouding except over Tirupati, Chennai and Puducherry; Mangluru, Hassan and Salem. The monsoon would continue to be active East, Central, North-West and adjoining West India during the rest of the week since the all-important monsoon trough lies favourably aligned to South of its normal position.

Outlook for Wednesday said heavy to very rainfall is likely over the North-Eastern States with extremely heavy falls Tripura while it would be heavy to very rainfall with extremely heavy falls over South-West Odisha; heavy to very heavy over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, West Uttar Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Gujarat Region.

Outlook for Wednesday

It would be heavy over Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, East Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, plains of West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Saurashtra, Kutch, Konkan, Goa, Ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra, Telangana and Coastal Karnataka.

Moderate to severe thunderstorms accompanied with lightning are forecast over Uttarkhand, Uttar Pradesh and East Rajasthan; thunderstorm accompanied with lightning over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, West Rajasthan, Assam, Meghalaya and the North-Eastern States. Strong winds (50-60 km/hr) may prevail over South-West and adjoining West-Central Arabian Sea and to between 45-55 km/hr South Gujarat-Maharashtra coasts; and along and Odisha-West Bengal coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture out to these seas.

Published on August 18, 2020

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