Bay ‘low’ may bring monsoon showers back to South India

The low-pressure area over the West-Central and adjoining North Bay of Bengal off the Andhra Pradesh and South Odisha coast is expected to bring monsoon showers back to the southern States.

The ‘low’ materialised on Friday afternoon exactly on the lines predicted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

The European agency has maintained its forecast for a follow-up ‘low’ to form partially over the Head Bay and partially over adjoining land (Bengal) around June 18. This would mean that the monsoon will maintain its strength through the next week, as it progresses along the West Coast (up to Mumbai by June 13) and into Marathawada and Madhya Maharashtra.

The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction says that the West Coast, including Mumbai and South Gujarat, may witness heavy to very rainfall with extreme rainfall events at isolated places until June 25.

Rains would be heavy over the North-Eastern States during the week ending June 17. The heavy rain belt would migrate towards the west and enter North-West India up to Delhi by June 25.

Rajasthan, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir may have to wait a few days for rain, according to this outlook.

Mumbai-Gujarat belt Meanwhile, another weather tracker, featured by the US Climate Prediction Centre, saw continuous movement of weather systems from the Bay of Bengal into adjoining East India and onward to North-West India until June 25. This more or less supports the view of the European agency except that the US tracker hints at the likelihood of development of a cyclonic disturbance around Mumbai and Gujarat and its movement into South Rajasthan.

Should this happen, it would only lead to enhanced monsoon activity over the Konkan-Mumbai-Gujarat region with the threat of heavy to extremely heavy rainfall events.

The India Met Department (IMD) in association with the Indian Council of Agricultural Research, All India Coordinated Research Project on Agricultural Meteorology and Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, has provided an extended range weather forecast indicating a rainfall outlook valid for the next two weeks.

Rainfall belt According to the forecast, the rainfall belt during the June 9 to 15 week is likely to progress northward over the West Coast and adjoining regions (Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and South Gujarat).

To the East, the coastal states of Bengal, eastern parts of Jharkhand and eastern parts of Bihar, coastal and adjoining central parts of Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and South Chhattisgarh are likely to receive precipitation during this period.

During the following week (June 16 to 22), the rainfall belt will be mainly active over the North-Eastern States, Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar as well as along the West Coast (particularly over Konkan, Goa and adjoining regions).