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India Meteorological Department (IMD) has notified the possibility of formation of a cyclone over the South-West Arabian Sea by Saturday, away from India’s coast, as an existing well-marked low-pressure area over the region intensified as a depression. The away-going cyclone is predicted to approach the South Oman and adjoining Yemen coasts for a landfall.
The depression was located on Friday afternoon 900 km East-South-East of Socotra (Yemen); 1,170 km South-East of Salalah Airport (Oman); and 1,260 km east-southeast of Al Ghaidah (Yemen). It is likely to move West-North-West and intensify into a cyclone and further as a severe cyclone by Sunday evening. Later, it would move towards South Oman and adjoining Yemen.
Depression over Bay
While this October cyclone would have no effect for the coast of India, the IMD said a counterpart low-pressure area located over South-East Bay of Bengal and under watch for strengthening as a depression, would be of some consequence for the coasts of Odisha and West Bengal as well as the North-Eastern States of Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
The depression is likely to materialise by Sunday, after the ‘low’ moves towards the West-Central Bay, likely skipping the Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts. It would move along the coast, and propel towards the Odisha and West Bengal coasts, according to short-term guidance from the IMD. On Friday, it did not indicate any movement of a western disturbance across North-West India that could potentially shift the track of the depression further away from Odisha/West Bengal.
North-East monsoon
Light to moderate rain has been forecast at a few places over Monday over Coastal Odisha and at many places on Tuesday and Wednesday as the system approaches. Coastal West Bengal, too, may witness light to moderate rain on Tuesday and Wednesday along with Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura, the IMD said in its outlook on Friday.
Meanwhile, the seasonal easterly to north-easterly wind regime has settled over the South Peninsula, and the North-East monsoon could commence in the next two days. Its initial phase would be weak, given the away-movement of storms over the Arabian Sea and the Bay. Kerala is expected to witness light to moderate to isolated heavy rain, thunderstorms and gutsy winds on Tuesday and Wednesday. Otherwise, the North-East monsoon is likely to remain weak until the month-end.
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