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As a weak La Nina nears its peak in the Equatorial Pacific, leading global weather forecasters feel it just might spell good tidings for India during the summer leading up to the 2018 South-West monsoon.
The consensus view is that the current weak La Nina will give in to ‘neutral’ (neither La Nina or El Nino) conditions during the summer, ensuring an orderly progress to the seasonal heating of the land and a good start to the monsoon.
La Nina has (cooling of the East Equatorial Pacific) been mostly associated with a normal to good monsoon and alter ego El Nino (warming) with a poor monsoon/drought, though not without direct one-to-one linkage.
Earliest of forecastsThe forecast outlooks for the summer are based on January assessment of the sea, land and atmosphere parameters and could change in subsequent months based on their real time readings.
The forecasters are of the view that North, North-West and Central India would witness normal to above normal temperatures during the summer months.
Adequate heating of the land is a must to create ideal conditions (lower pressure) to set up the ideal pressure and temperature gradients for the monsoon current to race in from the South-West (Kerala).
January-based forecasts by the agencies listed above are more or less in agreement about these conditions being met in time for the monsoon to get a reasonably good start. In fact, most of them see a good build-up from May to June ahead of the ‘burst’ of the monsoon over the Kerala coast and generally good precipitation over the West Coast.
Month-wise outlookIn month-wise outlook, APEC Climate Centre sees January bringing in above normal rainfall for South Kerala, South and South-East Tamil Nadu, while it will be normal for the rest of the country.
In February, the rain is expected to be near normal for the country except East-Central India, the North-East and Jammu and Kashmir. March will bring dry climes over Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and the North-East.
April, May and June may deliver above normal rainfall for Kerala.
The Busan centre sees June likely witnessing a good start to the monsoon and heavy rain for the West Coast.
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