The first seven days of this year’s monsoon has delivered a rain bounty of 71 per cent above the normal for the country as a whole with as many as 17 meteorological subdivisions (51 per cent) of the total 36 recording large excess (60 per cent above normal) rainfall during the period.

The monsoon had arrived on the Kerala coast on the normal date of June 1. Last year, it was delayed by more than a week until June 8, and was sluggish for the entire month of June due to cyclone Vayu taking shape in the Arabian Sea. So, the year-on-year performance here doesn’t offer a comparison.

Unlike the previous years, the onset phase benefited from a suitably located vortex (low-pressure area) and eventual cyclone (Nisarga) that chose to move parallel to the West Coast, helping the monsoon to cover Kerala during the first phase and Coastal Karnataka and adjoining interior peninsula in the next.

Cyclone Nisarga helps

Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, only two – Tamil Nadu & Puducherry in the South (-37 per cent) and Nagaland-Mizoram-Manipur-Tripura in the North-East (-36 per cent) – find themselves in the deficient list so far this year, India Meteorological Department (IMD) statistics reveal.

While the IMD announced that the northern limit of the monsoon had reached Chennai yesterday (Sunday), its arrival is still awaited over North-East India. The impending low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal is expected to improve the rainfall scenario in both the regions later this week.

While 17 meteorological subdivisions (51 per cent) received large excess rainfall so far this year; nine (23 per cent) have recorded excess rainfall (20-59 per cent above normal); eight (20 per cent) recorded normal (-19-+19 per cent) rainfall; and two (20 per cent) subdivisions, deficient (-20 per cent) rainfall.

Fresh low-pressure area

This (Monday) morning, the IMD said that the expected low-pressure area may form over the East-Central Bay of Bengal any time during the next two days. It may get a move to West-North-West and become more marked (intensified) during subsequent 24 hours.

It would bring fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over Odisha, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana from Tuesday to Thursday and isolated heavy falls over Vidarbha, plains of West West Bengal, Gujarat and South Madhya Pradesh o Wednesday and Thursday.

As for today, the IMD hinted at the possibility of heavy to very heavy rainfall over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands; heavy rainfall Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Kerala. Strong winds speeding up to 45-55 km/hr may prevail over parts of the Arabian Sea and up to 40-50 km/hr over the Andaman Sea.

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