A fresh spell of enhanced rainfall is likely over Central India from today (Monday) and over North-West India from tomorrow (Tuesday), even as it has kept parts of the region waiting, and remains stuck across Porbandar, Baroda, Shivpuri, Rewa and Churk, linking parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. The wait has extended by up to a week or more for North Gujarat, the fringes of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, and five days for parts of West Uttar Pradesh.
Rain stats tumble
In the bargain, rainfall statistics have taken a tumble, even as it was hoped that June might end with a surplus. Rainfall for the country as a whole is now in deficit (-7 per cent), after it made good the early deficit from a lock-up over Karwar on the West Coast. But it has stumbled once again over Porbandar in Gujarat. As on Monday, the worst-hit geographical region continues to be Central India (-30 per cent). It remains to be seen how far the deficit is narrowed during the ensuing spell over the three remaining days in June.
Low-pressure area devleops
One welcome news on Monday, though, is the development of a low-pressure area, the first of the season, over the Arabian Sea off the North Konkan-South Gujarat coasts (not far from Mumbai). As a consequence, the offshore trough on the West Coast has rolled out full-length from South Gujarat to North Kerala. A cyclonic circulation (non-monsoon) persists over North-West Rajasthan, from where a helpful trough originates, and dips into the West-Central Bay of Bengal across East Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and South Odisha.
Helpful troughs in North
In the return direction, a secondary trough over land extends from a cyclonic circulation over South Chhattisgarh and reaches out to the low-pressure area off the Mumbai coast. These atmospheric features support the cause of rainfall, mostly pre-monsoon, turning gradually monsoon, in the context of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), expecting the monsoon to cover more parts of Gujarat; some parts of East Rajasthan; remaining Madhya Pradesh and Bihar; some more parts of Uttar Pradesh; and some parts of Uttarakhand during the next two-three days.
Heavy rain for West Coast
The IMD has now forecast isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over Konkan and Goa during the next five days and isolated heavy rainfall over East Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Mahe during this period; over southern parts of Saurashtra on Wednesday and Thursday; coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana on Wednesday; North Interior Karnataka on Wednesday and Thursday; South Interior Karnataka from Tuesday to Thursday. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over coastal Karnataka on Wednesday and Thursday.
Exchange of moisture
Exchange of moisture by the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal via the troughs over land will bring isolated heavy rainfall over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, and West Rajasthan on Thursday; over Uttarakhand from Monday to Thursday; East Rajasthan on Wednesday and Thursday; Uttar Pradesh from Tuesday to Thursday; and over Himachal Pradesh on Wednesday and Thursday. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is also likely over Uttarakhand on Wednesday. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha during Monday to Thursday; and isolated heavy to very heavy over Bihar on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Southerly to south-westerly winds blowing in from the Bay of Bengal to the North-East and adjoining East India will sustain isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over the hills of West Bengal on Tuesday and Wednesday, as the bulk of the moisture leaves the region towards parts of Central and North-West India.