The monsoon may have paused briefly over Central India, but international models suggest that it would allow it to take a deep breath before a planned assault of the landscape — in particular over the West Coast, Gujarat and West Madhya Pradesh — and a campaign only slightly lower in intensity over the rest of the country during July, August and September.

Three international models surveyed — Application Laboratory of the Japanese national forecaster Jamstec; the Busan, South Korea-based APEC Climate Centre; and the ECMWF+UKMET (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts + UK Met Office) — more or less concur with each other’s above-normal outlook for the monsoon in July-September.

Jells with IMD outlook

This jells with the long-range forecast update issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on June 1 upgrading the seasonal rainfall to 102 per cent (from 100 per cent earlier). It had also predicted rainfall of 107 per cent for North-West India; 103 per cent over Central India; 102 per cent over the South Peninsula and 96 per cent over North-East India, all with a model error of ± 8 per cent.

Month-wise, the IMD assessed that rainfall for the country as whole is likely to be 103 per cent in July and 97 per cent during August, both with a model error of ± 9 per cent. The international models cited above seem to suggest they would not be surprised should these rainfall amounts be reached in the final analysis.

Rainy July, August, September

The APEC Climate Centre seems to suggest that the July-August-September season that includes the rainiest and second rainiest months of July and August would see above normal to excess rain over the West Coast, Gujarat, West Madhya Pradesh, South-West Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab. Rest of the country would witness normal to above normal rainfall during this period.

Its month-wise projections are as follows — July: above normal to excess over the West Coast; Gujarat; West Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan and the South Peninsula (heaviest rainfall over Gujarat and West Madhya Pradesh). Normal rain is projected over Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand with deficiency over parts of Coastal Odisha.

August: Excess rain over Gujarat, West Madhya Pradesh, East Rajasthan, South-West Uttar Pradesh and above normal over the rest of the country. Normal rain over Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, East Bihar, North Andhra Pradesh and Vidarbha and deficient over Coastal Odisha.

September: Above normal rain for most parts of the country with excess rain likely over the West Coast, South Gujarat and West Madhya Pradesh.