India Meteorological Department (IMD) doesn’t expect heat wave conditions to establish though day temperatures are currently above normal by 3-5 degrees Celsius over most parts of the hills of North-West India and by 2-4 degrees Celsius over the plains and some parts of Central, East and West India.

It expects no significant change in maximum temperatures (day) over most parts of North-West India during the next 2-3 days following which they actually may fall by 2-3 degrees Celsius for subsequent two days due to the calming influence of a cooler western disturbance and associated clouding.

Fresh western disturbance

A fresh western disturbance as a trough lay over South Afghanistan and adjoining South-West Pakistan on Thursday evening accompanied by an offspring cyclonic circulation over Central Pakistan and adjoining West Rajasthan. The combined strength makes it an active weather system.

Outlook for Saturday and Sunday said that thunderstorms, lightning and hail are possible at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and accompanied with lightning at isolated places over Punjab, North Haryana, Chandigarh and West Uttar Pradesh.

Heavy rainfall/snowfall is forecast at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. The eastward-bound western disturbance would spark lightning also over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura these days.

Scattered rain for North-East

Meanwhile, fresh western disturbances are forecast to enter the hills of North-West from the night of Friday and adjoining plains from the next night. A third in the series is expected by March 9 (Tuesday next) setting off fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/snowfall, thunderstorms and lightning.

Scattered to widespread rainfall with isolated thunderstorm/lightning is forecast over the rain-deficit North-East across Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura from this weekend. Isolated heavy rainfall may lash Arunachal Pradesh on Friday and thunder squalls (wind speeds of 50-60 km/hr gusting to 70 km/hr) and hail over Assam and Meghalaya on Friday.

Skymet’s mercury outlook

Private forecaster Skymet Weather said that Mumbai has continued to sizzle with the airport observatory recording maximum temperature in excess of 37 degree Celsius on Thursday, the first time this season. Santacruz registered 37.3 degrees Celsius, which is 4 degrees Celsius above normal.

This is also the earliest-recorded 37 degree Celsius in early-March since 2013. The country’s financial capital does breach the 37 degrees-Celsius mark but mostly during the second half of the month. Mumbai crossed the threshold as early as on March 2 in 2013 when it recorded 38 degrees Celsius.

During March, winds normally blow from land in the morning and change over to sea during the afternoon. Mercury keeps rising till the sea breeze sets in around 1-2 pm, leading to a sudden drop of 2-3 degrees Celsius. The normal of 35 degrees Celsius is breached when sea breeze fails to set in early.