India’s cumin seed (jeera) output is set to touch 4,16,000 tonnes for 2019, about 9 per cent higher than the previous year, supported by a sharp jump in production in Rajasthan. Amid increased production and a carryover stock of about 27,500 tonnes, the trade has set its eyes on the crop from international suppliers such as Turkey and Syria for a price guidance.

Per the latest crop estimates released by the Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders (FISS) and Agriculture Produce Market Committee, Unjha, jeera production in Gujarat is likely to dip to the tune of 3 per cent to 1,66,640 tonnes. The dip in Gujarat will get compensated by a sharp jump in production in Rajasthan at 2,49,960 tonnes, about 20 per cent higher than in the previous year.

A lower crop in the global market would propel India’s jeera exports, which will further lift prices. Jeera quoted in the range of ₹16,350-16,450 a quintal in the spot market in Unjha. In Futures trade, Jeera for March delivery quoted at ₹15,600 a quintal on March 1 2019, ₹175 higher than the previous close.

Higher sowing

“Jeera output is expected to be higher this year on a better crop as sowing was already higher this time. There was some damage in Gujarat due to water shortage. But we expect exports to be good this time till the crop from Turkey and Syria starts arriving, which will not happen before May-June. So, in a way, we don't have a competition till then and international buyers prefer our fresh stock for shipments,” said Ashvin Nayak, Chairman, FISS.

India's domestic consumption is pegged at about 180,000-200,000 tonnes, which is growing at a steady pace on increased use by restaurants and the food industry. Traders and exporters anticipate that prices will bottom out by March-April on increased arrivals, but are unlikely to slip below ₹13,000 a quintal.

FISS released their findings after a field study held between January 11-February 24, 2019 across 309 villages covering 1,454 farmers.

The area under jeera increased by 19 per cent in Rajasthan to 506,000 hectares, from 425,000 hectares last year with improved yield at 494 kg per hectare, up from 489 kg last year. For Gujarat, the jeera area saw a marginal dip of 5 per cent at 315,000 hectares, as compared to 332,000 hectares last year.

The yield in the State is expected to be 2 per cent higher at 529 kg per hectare, as against 520 kg last year. For coriander, FISS projected a 24 per cent decline in output from last year to 2,47,310 tonnes on a 27 per cent fall in acreage to 2,03,800 hectares.

Nayak attributed the decline in coriander sowing to sustained lower prices of the seed. “In the past few years, Gujarat started taking up coriander in a big way in addition to the conventional producers Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Last year the prices weren't good, hence farmers avoided this crop and turned to jeera or fennel seed instead.”

The crop in Gujarat likely to be down 52 per cent to 38,890 tonnes, with acreage of 30,500 hectares. The largest grower, Madhya Pradesh, will see coriander output at 1,16,510 tonnes, down 15 per cent over last year.

Increase in yield

FISS estimated coriander yield would increase by 4 per cent to 1,214 kg per hectare, from 1,163 kg per hectare. On the NCDEX, the coriander March contract quoted ₹23 higher at ₹6,200 a quintal. In the spot market, prices quoted at ₹6,111 as against ₹6,023 a fortnight ago.

There is, however, an encouraging rise in the fennel seed output, estimated at 75,710 tonnes, up 10 per cent on increased acreage at 71,160 hectares, which was 61,920 hectares last year. The growth is seen in Gujarat, where the acreage has increased by 15 per cent to 33,530 hectares and the crop is likely to be 37,150 tonnes, up 11 per cent over last year.

Similarly, FISS has estimated the fenugreek (methi) crop at 1,25,270 tonnes, 26 per cent lower than last year on account of a lower sowing area and marginally higher yields in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan.

Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan will be the largest producers of fenugreek, with output of 56,510 tonnes and 55,900 tonnes, respectively.