International weather agencies see a normal to surplus monsoon for most parts of India this year, as if in response to a wish expressed in the Economic Survey 2015-16.

In its early forecasts for the season, the Busan, South Korea-based Asia Pacific Climate Centre is quite bullish on a surplus monsoon for the country during the four-month period from June.


The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts may have refused to be that optimistic but sees mostly normal rain for the country during the period.

International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University has made the case for a season that doesn’t bring about any rainfall deficiency to any part of the country.

But it may be stated here the South Korean and European agencies have hinted at likely deficiencies arising from East India and the Northeastern States.

Peninsular India and parts of North-West India, which bore the brunt of the poor monsoon last year, may receive exceptionally good showers this time, the Korean forecaster said.


The Economic Survey had stated that the year 2014-15 El Nino, which was mainly responsible for the deficient monsoons for 2014 and 2015, is unlikely to repeat this year in the Equatorial East Pacific.

The poor rains had led foodgrains production to decline to 252 million tonnes and 253 million tonnes in 2014-15 and 2015-16 respectively from a record production of 265 million tonnes in 2013-14.

The Survey had also cautioned that La Nina, the alter ego of El Nino and which usually brings in rains, is unlikely to impact the early phase of the 2016 monsoon.

Instead the Pacific is likely to lapse into a ‘neutral phase’ during the summer but combine with other favourable features to drive a good monsoon here.

The international agencies have agreed with this view and said that the La Nina, if at all, may emerge towards the fag end of the year, after the monsoon has exited the landmass.