‘Low’ in Bay could spawn stormy weather

The India Met Department (IMD) has officially put out a watch for a low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal over the next four to five days, suggesting a return of a rainy spell for parts of East, Central and Peninsular India during next week.

Global models had already hinted the possibility and pointed to a churn in upstream Gulf of Thailand where a cyclonic circulation had been persisting for the past few days.

This is over and above a persisting circulation over Telangana that has brought heavy rain to Telangana, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and north interior Karnataka for the past couple of days.

Meanwhile, wind-field projections by the IMD suggest that the ‘low’, which is expected to form around Saturday in the North Bay, could go on to intensify and become at least a monsoon depression by the it reaches the Odisha coast.

Odd chances favour its further development as a system of minimal cyclone strength over east Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh by Tuesday next, according to these projections.

A weather tracker employed by the US Climate Prediction Centre too agrees with this outlook and finds ‘space for elaborate play’ for the system bringing heavy rain into East and adjoining Central India.

But it would start to weaken almost immediately as dry westerlies from a North-West India fan into it, and drives it towards the north and northeast to the foothills of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

The IMD and peer global models also see the system spawning activity in the Arabian Sea off the Karnataka coast where a resident circulation is likely to get amplified in strength even as it moves away from the coast.

October is no stranger to stormy weather developing in the seas around the Indian peninsula and analysed data suggests that cyclones occur in May-June and October-November with a primary peak in November and secondary peak in May.

Cyclones affect the entire coast, but the East Coast of India is more prone compared to the West Coast. Out of the cyclones rearing in the Bay, over 58 percent approach and cross the East Coast in October and November.