Weather report. Monsoon forecast: Agri input makers cautiously optimistic on kharif prospects

Amidst forecasts of a below-normal to normal southwest monsoon for 2023 and the possibility of El Nino influencing the rainy season, agri-input makers are cautiously optimistic about the prospects of the kharif cropping season in the year-ahead.

Also read: What if El Nino materialises in 2023?

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast normal rains for the year, while private forecaster Skymet had projected below-normal rains on Monday. Both entities have projected that parts of NorthWest and West Central India are likely to see below normal rains.

“We will have to wait and see. The updated forecasts in May are likely to give more clarity,” said M Ramasami, Chairman, Rasi Seeds Pvt Ltd. Maharashtra, Gujarat, and parts of Madhya Pradesh are key cotton-producing regions. Also, these states are large producers of groundnut, soyabean, and pulses.

‘Positive news’

“IMD’s forecast is positive news, especially amidst the global uncertainties that we are facing. It not just augurs well for the agriculture and allied sector but also for the whole Indian economy. It will further enhance India’s position in the global supply chain,” said Ankur Aggarwal, Managing Director, Crystal Crop Protection.

Shares of agri-input makers reacted positively on the bourses on Tuesday. The scrip of Kaveri Seed Company, which announced Monday that it plans to set up subsidiary in Bangladesh, gained over 3 per cent on Tuesday. Shares of UPL, Rallis, RCF, Sumitomo Chemical and Chambal Fertilisers also gained marginally.

“It is too early to comment,” said a senior official at a large seed firm. “Factors such as the timely onset of monsoon and its progress across the country and spatial distribution are some of the factors that would decide the performance of the agri-input makers in the cropping season ahead.”

Not so affected

“The southwest monsoon is very critical for kharif crops. The delayed arrival of monsoon has an adverse effect on cropping pattern and productivity. The prolonged dry spell will increase incidences of sucking insects (jassid, thrips, mealy bug) in crops like cotton, sugarcane, groundnut, and soybean. The insecticides consumptions will be more. The dry weather in soybean and groundnut increases seed and soil-borne diseases, so seed treatment can be a choice for farmers to protect the crop in early stage.

The weed occurrence will be low so herbicide consumption could be adversely affected in crops like rice, sugarcane, soybean and groundnut. The disease incidence will be low, so fungicidal application will be reduced. Crop survival will be a concern for grower, the use of plant growth promotors will increase. Overall, agrochemical consumption will be not be affected much,” said Bhavesh Shah, Managing Director, GSP Crop Science Pvt Ltd.

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