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The monsoon has advanced into the southernmost parts of the Arabian sea, some more parts of the Maldives-Comorin, as well as the South-West and South-East Bay of Bengal and parts of the East Coast on Monday.
Thunderstorms and bouts of heavy rain may lash parts of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka by turn within the next two to three days, ahead of the onset of the monsoon over mainland India.
ONSET FEATURES
The India Met Department (IMD) has predicted that the onset would happen around June 6, a ‘slightly delayed’ start from the normal date of June 1.
A cyclonic circulation lies over Lakshadweep and the adjoining South-East Arabian Sea, and may move westwards (into the open waters and away from the Kerala coast) without any intensification during next two days.
This is normally taken to mean intensification into a cyclone and a movement towards the Oman/Yemen coast as has often happened in recent years. But not this year, the IMD seemed to suggest. Instead, it would strengthen cross- equatorial monsoon flows over the Southern parts of South Arabian Sea, favouring the advance of the monsoon during the next two days.
Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also forecast over Assam, Meghalaya and the North-Eastern States during the next three days as the Bay arm of the monsoon closes in.
As for its Arabian Sea arm, a ‘low’ trough has already formed in the Arabian sea off the Kerala-Karnataka coast.
An East-West shear zone of monsoon turbulence, an essential determinant of strong onset conditions, is expected to develop across the extreme South Peninsula from Wednesday onwards.
This, the IMD said, would lead to favourable conditions for onset, which would be declared once a series of qualifying conditions is met.
From June 8 to 10, the IMD has forecast widespread rainfall over parts of East India, North-East India, South Peninsular India and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
Isolated heavy falls have been forecast over the plains of Bengal, Odisha, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala while it would be isolated to scattered over the hills of the Himalayas.
Meanwhile, monsoon conditions are gradually establishing over Sri Lanka, the penultimate stop for seasonal rains before they arrive over the Kerala coast.
Showery and windy conditions are expected to enhance over the island nation (particularly in the South-western part) from Monday night, the Sri Lankan Met Department said.
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