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North-West India, Gujarat and parts of adjoining West Madhya Pradesh may have to endure top heat for another month (April) before thundershowers intervene, while the rest of the country may witness normal to above normal rain in April, May and June.
This should likely set the stage for another good monsoon for the country as a whole, though some reverses are in store for the South Peninsula and Peninsular India, according to an updated outlook by the APEC Climate Centre, South Korea.
Kerala, TN may be hit
Regions likely being affected are Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, North interior and coastal Karnataka, Marathawada and Goa. These regions are expected to be hit in July and August, which are the rainiest and second-rainiest months of the monsoon. The South Korean agency expects that some order (in the form of rains) will return in September.
But the agency, based in the city of Busan, suspects South Kerala and adjoining Tamil Nadu may continue to experience deficient rainfall in September, the last of the four monsoon months. In a way, it may also mark a break from the immediate past when these States witnessed excess rain and floods, notably following the year of the great floods of 2018.
Normal, above-normal
The seasonal outlook for the months averaged for April-May-June season (pre-monsoon) shows normal to above normal rain for the country as a whole while July-August-September may turn out to be slightly deficient due to projected shortfall over parts of the South Peninsula.
Back home, private forecaster Skymet Weather had come out with what it described as its ‘Preliminary Monsoon Forecast Guidance for 2022’ last month, in which it forecast a ‘normal monsoon’ for the country. The keenly watched seasonal outlook from national forecaster India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected later in April.
La Nina weakens a bit
Meanwhile, on Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said that the 2021-22 La Nina event in the tropical Pacific, which oversaw a successful Indian monsoon last year, has weakened slightly over the past fortnight.
Global model outlooks indicate a return to neutral conditions — neither La Nina nor traditional monsoon-killer El Nino — in the tropical Pacific during in March-April-May. But the Bureau said the weakening La Nina may continue to influence global weather and climate.
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