Even as the trade truce between US and China appears to fallin place , the Indian oilmeal exporters have still kept high hopes from the Chinese market, which was projected to absorb about 2.5 million tonnes of India's oilmeals.

“Due to trade tensions between the US and China we expected more oilmeal exports to China. But even in the case of the two countries settling their trade disputes, India stands a chance to take advantage of geographical proximity to China,” said B V Mehta, executive director, Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

Notably, on Thursday, China imported a little over one million tonnes of soybeans from the US — the first time since trade tensions began.

However, trade sources believe that considering the Chinese appetite for soybean and soybean meal, the latest quantity imported from the US was negligible, and India stands a genuine chance to tap the market.

“If the trade war settles, and China starts buying soybean from the US, we still have a chance with small quantities of soybean exports for food use. Because of the non-GM soybean, which US can't supply, China is seriously looking at buying from India for its non-GM requirements. The quantum of exports depends on how much we can supply, considering our surplus stock. Chinese need is too high for us to cover it all,” said D N Pathak, Executive Director, Soybean Processors Association of India.

As per the SOPA projections for 2018-19, soybean supply in the country will hover around 11.8 mt , including 11.5 mt of production, 1.5 lakh tonnes of carryover stock, and about twolakh tonnes of imports.

Rates too high

SOPA estimates export of soybean at about 3 lakh tonnes and soybean meals at about 2.5 mt .

However, for meal exports, Pathak stated that the current exchange rate and higher prices are unfavourable for China to import from India.

“We can cater to the Chinese demand but our soymeal is costlier by $100 a tonne. Also, earlier there were 4-5 per cent gains when dollar was weak, but with dollar strengthening we don't have that gain anymore. And domestic costs remain high. So, considering these factors, 2.5 million tonnes of exports looks far away,” said Pathak.

On the rapeseed meal, SEA stated that indications were coming from Ministry of Commerce and Export Inspection Council of India that China will resume import of rapeseed meal from India.

However, it stated that resumption of export of soybean meal to China may take some time, as Chinese GACC team mayvisit this month to inspect/approve the units.

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