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Updated monthly rain forecasts by the Busan, South Korea-based APEC Climate Centre has retained the outlook for normal to above normal showers for the South Peninsula during February and April, while being just around normal for March.
As per this forecast, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Karnataka, Rayalaseema, and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh stand to benefit during February.
Likely wet summerIn April, parts of Telangana and adjoining South-West Maharashtra too may receive good summer showers even as the above mentioned regions come in for a second full month of above normal rainfall.
During April, most of Kerala and adjoining southern parts of Coastal Karnataka are forecast to receive excess showers. The intervening March is likely to end up drier for all these regions except parts of Coastal Karnataka.
Earlier, five global forecasting agencies had said in a consensus outlook that the country, especially the South Peninsula, would likely receive normal to above normal summer showers during the 2018 season.
A combined bulletin put out by the Earth System Science Organisation, Ministry of Earth Sciences, and India Met Department had to say the following with regard to evolving summer weather based on December, 2017, initial conditions.
Positive anomalies forecastJanuary-February-March likely to witness positive precipitation anomalies (above normal rain) over south-eastern and eastern parts of South Asia (Bhutan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, North-East and South India and Sri Lanka).
Maximum positive anomalies are indicated for Sri Lanka. Negative precipitation (below normal rain) anomalies are likely over rest of the South Asian region (Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, and parts of north, central as well as few parts of North-West India).
Forecast for February-March-April suggests positive precipitation for Bhutan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, North-East India and South Peninsular India along with some parts of Central and North-West India, and Sri Lanka.
On the other hand, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, and most parts of North India are likely to have negative precipitation anomalies, the combined outlook said.
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