The carry forward stocks of soyabean for the new oil year starting October 2022 will be at a record 27.72 lakh tonnes (lt) as farmers, trade and crushing units still hold a sizeable chunk of the oilseeds from last year’s output.

Trade body Soyabean Oil Processors Association (SOPA), in its latest supply and demand estimates, has pegged the oilseed stocks with farmers, trade and crushing units at 40.52 lt.

Assuming another 12-13 lt get crushed during August and September, based on the trends over the past few months, the carry forward stocks at the beginning of October are likely to be around 27.72 lt. “The carry forward stocks for the new oil year will be a record 27.72 lakh tonnes,” said DN Pathak, Executive Director, SOPA.

The trade body, looking at the current market situation, import and export pattern, has revised upwards the import figures of the oilseed to 4.5 lt from earlier 3.5 lt. Similarly, export figures for the bean and direct consumption have been revised upwards by 0.5 lt each to 1 lt and 3.5 lt, respectively.

The soyabean crushing has been rather sluggish during the current oil year with farmers and trade preferring to hold back the oilseed anticipating higher prices. Total soyabean crushing from October 2021 till end July 2022 was 67.5 lt — down by about 23 per cent over same period last year’s 87.5 lt. On a monthly basis, soyabean crushing — which was trailing last year’s levels till April — has picked up over the past three months.

As a result of lower crushing and higher prices when compared to the world market, exports of soyameal have seen a major decline, so far. Soyameal exports for the October-July period were only 5.86 lt, a decline of 69 per cent over 18.98 lt in the same period a year ago.

Exports down

Accordingly, SOPA expects the export of soyabean meal to be around 6.5 lt, down from the earlier projections of 10 lt. Also, the estimates of soyameal import have been revised downwards to 5.5 lt from the earlier estimated 7 lt. The domestic offtake of soyameal has been pegged higher at 55 lt — up from earlier estimates of 54 lt.

Meanwhile, the soyabean seeding in the current kharif season has ended and the Agriculture Ministry has pegged the area at 117.50 lakh hectares — higher than 115.10 lakh hectares a year ago. Trade sources said with the prospects for soyabean looking good and coupled with huge carry forward stocks the oilseed prices are likely to come under pressure when the harvest begins late September.

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