Well-marked ‘low’ could trigger floods over Central India

The well-marked low-pressure area over East Madhya Pradesh, the fulcrum of enhanced monsoon activity, is forecast to move nearly westwards across West Madhya Pradesh during the next 3-4 days, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said on Friday. Well-marked and enduring, it is fraught with the risk of setting off flooding rains over what is already drenched geography.

For instance, it did not need a stronger weather system to set off the historic floods in Mumbai or Chennai more than a decade ago. The well-marked lows pack themselves with tons of moisture mopped up from the seas on either side of the peninsula, and add even more through extended say over land, taking advantage of the favourable environment around them.

Awash with moisture feed

And the current well-marked low may potentially have exactly what it takes to reprise the flood events – a full-blown and active parent monsoon trough supported from above by a shear zone of monsoon turbulence and from the rear by a successor low-pressure area brewing in the North-West Bay of Bengal by Sunday, feeding in incremental moisture.

On Friday, the monsoon trough passed through Phalodi, Ajmer, Guna, centre of the well-marked low area over the central parts of East Madhya Pradesh, Ambikapur and Baripada before dipping east-southeastward into North-East Bay of Bengal, providing the lifeline to as also an elevated high road for the next low to steam in over East and Central India yet again.

The IMD has forecast widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Telangana, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Rajasthan during the next 3-4 days. Isolated extremely heavy falls are likely over East Rajasthan and Gujarat region during until Sunday and over West Madhya Pradesh until Saturday.

Isolated extremely heavy rain

Isolated extremely heavy rain is likely Madhya Maharashtra until Saturday; and Saurashtra and Kutch on Sunday and Monday. The fresh low would scale up rainfall over East and adjoining Central India from Sunday. Isolated heavy to very heavy falls are seen for Odisha during Sunday-Tuesday; over plains of West Bengal on Monday and Tuesday; and over Jharkhand on Tuesday.

The Bay seems not finished yet, and the IMD sees it might conjure up another low during the last week of August, the seventh in the series. Its extended outlook for August 26-28 has forecast fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thundershowers over Maharashtra, Goa, and Karnataka coasts; Gujarat State, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.

It would be scattered to fairly widespread rainfall/thundershowers likely over North-East and adjoining East India. The IMD added for good measure that, under the influence of the expected fresh low, isolated heavy to very heavy falls might lash South Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, East Rajasthan and Gujarat State during this period (August 26-28).