Budget 2020

Economic Survey 2016-17 highlights

Reuters | Updated on January 12, 2018 Published on January 31, 2017

Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley with Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian (L) and Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das (2nd L) who authored the Economic Survey 2016-17.   -  PTI

The survey was prepared by the Finance Ministry's Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian.

India's economy should grow between 6.75 per cent and 7.5 per cent in the financial year beginning on April 1, Economic Survey, estimated on Tuesday.

The Economic Survey, which sets the scene for Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's fourth annual budget on Wednesday, forecast that Asia's third-largest economy should steady after a hit from the government's shock decision in November to scrap most cash in circulation.

The survey was prepared by the finance ministry's chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian.

Here are the highlights of the report:


* 2017/18 GDP growth seen between 6.75 and 7.5 per cent year on year

* GDP growth rate at constant market prices for the current year 2016/17 is placed at 7.1 per cent

* The federal statistics office's estimate of 7.1 per cent growth for 2016/17 likely to be revised downwards

* Service sector is estimated to grow at 8.9 per cent in 2016/17

* Industrial growth rate expected to moderate to 5.2 per cent in 2016/17 from 7.4 per cent in 2015/16

Fiscal Deficit

* Implementation of wage hike, muted tax receipts to put pressure on fiscal deficit in 2017/18

* Need for fiscal prudence for both centre and states for fiscal health of the economy

* Fiscal windfall from low oil prices to disappear in2017/18 - TV channels

Monetary Policy

* Sharp rise in prices in 2017/18 may cap monetary easing headroom

* Market interest rates seen lower in 2017/18 due to demonetisation

Government debt

* Government debt to GDP ratio in 2016 seen at 68.5 per cent down from 69.1 per cent in 2015


* Remonetisation will ensure that the cash squeeze is eliminated by April 2017

* Supply of currency should follow actual demand and not be dictated by official estimate of desirable demand

* Government windfall arising from unreturned notes should be deployed towards capital spending


* Suggests setting up public sector asset rehabilitation agency to take charge of large bad loans in banks

* Central agency with government backing could overcome coordination and political issues on bad loans


* Income tax rates and real estate stamp duties could be reduced

* Timetable for reducing corporate tax rate could be accelerated

Universal basic income

* Universal Basic Income (UBI) proposal a powerful idea, but not ready for implementation

* UBI an alternative to plethora of state subsidies for poverty alleviation

* UBI would cost between 4 and 5 per cent of GDP

Published on January 31, 2017
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