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Even as the historic credit rating downgrade of the US continues to cause mayhem in global markets, analysts have pointed toward a possible lowering of the ratings for other countries like the UK, France and Japan.
While there is no official word as yet from the ratings agencies —— including S&P, which downgraded the US on Friday —— analysts have said these countries face the significant risk of a credit ratings downgrade in the near future if they do not get their recovery acts together.
The analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH), a privately held financial services firm offering a range of international investment and banking services has in fact put out a research note on possible candidates for a downgrade.
The report has named France, Belgium, the UK and Japan at the greatest risk of a downgrade and has said that the US downgrade was unwarranted.
Giving further credence to the chances of a downgrade on Japan, rating agency Moody’s yesterday warned that the country’s intervention in foreign exchange markets to stop the rise of the yen would be negative for its ratings. In May, Moody’s had warned of a possible downgrade of Japan from the current ‘AA2’ rating.
S&P already has an ‘AA—’ rating on Japan with a negative outlook.
In its report, BBH said that the UK has been a downgrade candidate for a long time and its weakening growth prospects could trigger a possible lowering of its rating from the ‘AAA’ level.
About another AAA—rated nation, France, the report said that it has a weaker credit profile than even the US.
Analysts at global investment banking major UBS were also quoted as saying that France was not treated by markets as a AAA country. However, S&P this weekend reaffirmed its ‘AAA’ rating for France.
On Belgium, the BBH report said that it certainly qualifies for a downgrade, as it has been without a government for more than a year now.
Talking about another European nation, Germany, BBH said that it continues to have a robust AAA—rated credit profile, but the future might not be so bright.
The countries currently enjoying AAA rating include the UK, France, Germany, Austria, Finland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.
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