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The Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) jumped to 76.0 (pre-pandemic level=100) for the week ending 13 June from 67.9 in the previous week. This is 24pp below pre-pandemic levels.. Much of this can be explained by the strong revival in mobility indicators, as States have begun a calibrated reopening, with Google mobility indices, the Apple Driving Index, and daily railway passenger revenues all rising.
The recovery in the non-mobility side has been more gradual. Daily railway freight revenues have been rising slowly, and the 9 million GST E-Way bills in the first week of June are at higher levels than during the first week of both April and May (7.2mn and 1.4mn, respectively), but lower than the 15.6 million average in January and February, before the second wave struck.
“The inflection seen in ultra-high frequency data in June suggests economic data is likely to sequentially improve this month but remains weak compared to pre-second wave levels. We expect the worst hit to the economy to be limited to May,” Nomura said.
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