Global cotton output seen rising 6%: ICAC

Our Bureau Ahmedabad | Updated on October 03, 2021

Prices likely to stay firm as traders expect robust consumption

Global cotton output is seen rising by 6 per cent with expected rise in the output in the growing countries of Australia, Brazil and the US.

In its latest October cotton production and stock projections for the 2021-22 season, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has indicated that the global output of the fibre crop will be around 25.7 million tonnes (mt), which would be higher by six per cent over previous year, but still be lower than the pre-pandemic levels.

The ending stocks for 2020/21 has been revised downward to 20 mt, leading to the world cotton supply to be around 45.8 mt for the 2021/22 season. The global consumption is estimated at 25.9 mt.

ICAC noted that the global cotton trade stood at the highest levels ever in 2020/21. “The estimate of 10.29 million tonnes for the coming season shows that industry sentiment remains positive — especially given the robust levels of retail sales of textiles seen in many developed countries,” it said in its commentary.

The ICAC Secretariat has projected a higher cotton price of the season-average “A index for 2021/22 ranges from 82 cents to 127 cents, with a midpoint at 101.60 cents per pound,” it added.

The latest price forecast is on the higher side of the previous forecast issued in August 2021, with season-average A index for 2021/22 ranging between 73 cents to 125 cents, with a midpoint at 95.43 cents per pound.

Revival in production

Notably, earlier in August 2021, ICAC had indicated a revival in the global production to 25 mt in 2021-22 with a robust consumption growth expectations.

India’s cotton scenario is likely to be bright. The trade estimates cotton output for the season 2021-22 at 395 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) as against the estimated 356 lakh bales for 2020-21. Inspite of the heavy flooding following recent incessant rains in the growing regions of Gujarat, the crop is likely to be around 105 lakh bales in the State. The trader sources estimate cotton carry forward stock to be lesser than the previous season at around 80 lakh bales on improved consumption.

Published on October 02, 2021

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