The OECD-FAO Outlook report published every year makes interesting reading insofar as major crops are concerned. The latest report (Outlook 2021-2030) covers pulses, among a few other non-major crops, under ‘other products’ category.

As always, India is central to any projection with respect to global pulses as the country is by far the world’s largest producer, processor, importer and consumer of the protein-rich legume. However, the report on pulses betrays a broad and somewhat superficial view on pulses at least insofar as India is concerned. Let’s see how.

Higher output projections

Projecting the global pulses supply to increase by 22 million tonnes (mt), the report says almost half of the increase is expected to come from Asia, particularly India where by 2030 an additional 6.6 mt will be produced because of introduction of high-yielding hybrid seeds, supported mechanisation, minimum support price regime and procurement system on a modest scale.

The report goes on to add that world pulses trade that grew from 13 mt to 17 mt in the last ten years is projected to reach only 19 mt by 2030 because of India’s recent efforts to become self-sufficient in pulses. As for trade, after a continued increase in the near-term, pulses import by India is expected to level-off by 2030 when it is projected to reach 5 mt.

Far from reality

With due respect to OECD-FAO and the authors of the report, one must say the outlook displays weaknesses and inadequate appreciation of the ground reality. For one, the report ignores the known vulnerabilities of India’s pulses production and seems to go by official crop estimates and statements issued by the government. As is widely believed, the production estimates are overstated by at least 10 per cent if not more.

Indeed, if the government’s crop production number were correct, there is no reason why domestic prices should rise and no need to liberalise import of certain pulses including pigeon pea as was done recently. OECD-FAO has made its future projection based on government’s overstated current output data.

Area planted to pulses is reaching its limits as land constraints kick-in. Area has expanded from 24 million hectares in 2015-16 to 28 mha in 2020-21. It can’t expand forever. Any significant future increase can come only from policy intervention relating to crop diversification from rice and wheat.

Importantly, there has been no major technological breakthrough in seeds. While agronomic practices are improving, fragmented landholding, low level of input usage and susceptibility to pest and disease attacks can potentially stymie yields which in any case are low.

Consumption side

The report has not touched upon the demand side. India is the one country where pulses consumption can show a quantum jump. Poor nutrition status is likely to become a key driver of pulses demand in the years to come. After all, pulses are the most economical and nutritious food ingredient that can advance the country’s nutrition security.

So, India’s pulse consumption growth has the potential to race ahead of production growth if appropriate policies to boost consumption are introduced. In other words, there are challenges on the production side and strong justification for consumption growth. This can lead to supply-demand mismatch.

From a global pulse market perspective, the report ignores the growing importance of China that can potentially rival India. China’s pulses import in 2020 was a whopping 2.9 mt (mainly peas) rising from about 2 mt each in previous two years.

Canada is the main supplier of peas to China. Other origins, especially Black Sea region, are sure to catch up.

Without staying smug, it is critical the Indian policymakers recognise the looming changes in the global market place and take proactive steps to ensure adequate and uninterrupted availability of pulses for a majority of the predominantly vegetarian population.

The writer is a policy commentator and global agribusiness specialist. Views are personal.

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