Broker's call: Mahanagar Gas

CMP: ₹1,065.15

Target: ₹956

In 1HFY20, Mahanagar Gas (MAHGL) reported total gas sales volume growth of mere 2 per cent y-o-y versus company guidance of 6 per cent. To perform 6 per cent total volume growth in FY20, our calculation suggests, MAHGL need to report 10 per cent total volume growth in 2HFY20, which is unlikely. Further, no new GA won by company, no scope of expansion and volume growth from new area. Fall in run rate of vehicle conversion and worst car density in Mumbai (news) will lead to mere 3.0 per cent CNG volume growth in FY19-FY22E.

We expect, MAHGL’s FY20E to FY22E EPS CAGR of 1 per cent only. As we envisage fall in EBITDA margin and limited growth potential, which may warrant a de-rating and reduction in PE multiples from the current levels. MAHGL is trading as a consumer play (FY20 P/E of 14x) despite its matured business profile and EBITDA margin reduction, after rise in crude prices and crude linked gas cost. Further, we expect MAHGL’s RoCE/RoE to fall from 24 per cent/24 per cent in FY19 to 22 per cent/22 per cent in FY22E, as the company is unlikely to sustain consistent growth in EBITDA and PAT over the next three years volume growth over FY19-FY22E.