The rupee started the session on a flat note against the dollar, opening at 73.68 from the previous close of 73.67 levels. It has been trading in the band between 73.56 and 73.68 for the session. After taking support at around 73.8, the rupee started to strengthen and appreciated to 73.5 levels. As long as the key support level of 73.8 holds, the near-term view will remain positive for the session. A strong move beyond 73.55 can take the INR to 73.3 and then to 73 levels in the short term.

On the other hand, if the rupee declines below the immediate support level of 73.8 can pull it lower to 74 and the next support is pegged at 74.2.

Dollar index

The dollar index has been trending upwards since it took support at around 91.5 in late August. While trending upwards, it had breached a key resistance level of 94 recently and hovers just above this level. It is currently trading at 94.5. As long as the index holds above 94, the near term view will remain bullish. In that case, it can trend upwards to 95 over the short run. Key support below 94 is placed at 93.5

Trade strategy

The October month currency futures contract started the session at 73.81 to the previous close of 73.93. After marking an intra-day low at 73.9, the contract took support and started to trend upwards breaching a key resistance at 73.8. The near-term stance remains positive as long as the contract trades above 73.9 levels. Traders can buy the contract with a stop-loss at 73.85. A strong rally above 73.7 can take the contract northwards to 73.5 and then to 73.3 levels.

Supports: 73.9 and 74

Resistances: 73.5 and 73.3

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