Ashoka University and software consultancy firm ThoughtWorks on Monday entered into a research collaboration to develop an ultra-large-scale agent-based simulation model for the spread of Covid-19 in India. The model, called BharatSim, builds on EpiRust, an open source framework developed and released recently by ThoughtWorks.

In BharatSim, each individual is simulated as an ‘agent’ on a computer. The properties of agents are chosen to match those known from district and State-level demographic studies, including age distributions, sex ratios, population densities and health indicators. The model also includes geographical information.

The model will initially represent 5 per cent of the Indian population at a level of detail most useful to epidemic modelling. In the coming months, it will be expanded to represent up to 40 per cent of the population.

The team of developers is led by Gautam Menon, professor of physics and biology at Ashoka University, and by Harshal Hayatnagarkar, a computer scientist at ThoughtWorks.

“Scientists understand that working collaboratively frees us to concentrate on what we are best at. Once completed, BharatSim will be made freely available to the community of researchers and policymakers in India and elsewhere,” said Menon in a statement.

Malabika Sarkar, Vice-Chancellor, Ashoka University, added: “While data on Covid-19 keep pouring in, the country has not been able to understand how the pandemic has spread across the country yet, and if it has had a controlled spread. BharatSim will enable us to understand the effects of the measures taken by India and what the future looks like for us.”

Agent-based models

Agent-based models provide ways of understanding how epidemics spread in a way that other models are not capable of. They incorporate a high level of detail and are also flexible, since they can allow agents to modify their behaviour as time proceeds. The approach can model interventions such as a lockdown or a local quarantine, as well as incorporate the effects of different levels of compliance with these measures. It can also provide estimates of hospital beds and critical care requirements in an epidemic situation.

“Some of the toughest problems and challenges in science today need scientists, academicians and technologists to come together. Given the unprecedented nature of the problem at hand, teaming up with Ashoka University, we believe we can provide the right tool for policy makers,” said S Mahale and Gunjan S, Directors, ThoughtWorks Engineering for Research, in the statement.

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