Lockdown, social distancing and face masks helped India fare better than other countries, according to the Covid-19 National Super Model Committee consisting of researchers from IITs in Hyderabad and Kanpur and the Integrated Defence Staff among others.

Speaking to reporters, M Vidyasagar from IIT-H, said that the Covid-19 pandemic may taper off by February if the safety protocols are strictly followed. The progression of the pandemic in India shows that a further lockdown can be avoided if preventive measures are followed.

“Safety protocols such as wearing masks, social distancing among others, together with a comprehensive lockdown has allowed India to fare better than many other countries. India has one-sixth of the world’s population (one-fifth excluding China), and one-sixth of the reported cases. However, India accounts for only 10 per cent of the world’s deaths, and its fatality rate of less than 2 per cent is among the lowest,” the report said.

According to the report, India’s fatality rate per million is about a tenth that of the European countries and the US.

Infections may rise

“At the same time, we do not yet know the weather-specific perturbations of this outbreak (in general, viruses tend to be more active in colder environment) and the effects of possible future mutations in the virus. In view of this and the scenarios analysed, as well as the upcoming festival season, the committee strongly recommends that the existing personal safety protocols need to continue in full measure. Otherwise, we will see a sharp rise in infections,” the report said.

“Avoiding congestion, taking special care of those above 65 years and children are even more significant. People with co-morbidities need to be extra cautious. Fresh lockdown should not be imposed at district and Statewide levels, unless there is imminent danger of the healthcare facilities being overwhelmed,” the report added.

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