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India to get normal monsoon in 2020

Our Bureau New Delhi | Updated on April 15, 2020 Published on April 15, 2020

India is likely to receive a “normal” South-West monsoon this year with the country as a whole receiving 100 per cent of the long period average (LPA) of 88 centimetre rainfall, Ministry of Earth Sciences Secretary M Rajeevan said on Wednesday.

The chances of getting a good monsoon, which is important for agricultural activities in particular and for the economy in general, are very high with the probability of the rainfall being in 96 to 104 per cent of LPA is 45 per cent, while that of deficient rains (below 90 per cent of LPA) is mere 9 per cent, he said. Another 21 per cent probability is to have rainfall in the range of 104 to 110 per cent of the LPA, which is an average of southwest monsoon rainfall that India received annually between 1961 to 2000 period.

Rajeevan, who along with India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, released the first stage long range monsoon forecast here, said both El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, two major ocean warming phenomena that have huge influence on the quantum of rainfall that India gets during the south-west monsoon, are neutral this year. While El Nino is linked to deficient rains, a positive IOD brings in more rains to the Indian landmass. However, he said, some models are suggesting a La Nina condition, which leads to better rains, during the latest part of the monsoon.

With 60 per cent of the country’s fields being rainfed, the monsoon, which accounts for more than 70 per cent of annual rainfall, is critically important for farming and economic growth.

The MoES Secretary also said while the onset and withdrawal dates for the monsoon in the country remain June 1 and October 15 respectively, the date of onset and withdrawal particularly in central and northwestern regions of the country have been some change and an expert committee which looked into the actual dates of onset and withdrawal in these regions between 2016 and 2019 have redrawn the dates acoordingly.

Published on April 15, 2020

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