The depression over the North-West Bay of Bengal has surprised yet again by intensifying into a deep depression by noon, a status that is only one step below a tropical cyclone. The depression was practically unchanged from its morning location, and was traced to 20 km east-south-east of Digha, from where it is expected to cross the Bengal coast by the evening. 

RARE DEPRESSION

The depression itself is a rarity, forming as it has in the first week of the monsoon withdrawal month of September, accompanied by high winds and heavy rain initially over East India. The previous day's low-pressure area has intensified twice over into the night, and seemed to enjoy a easterly push from the churning West/North-West Pacific.

Global weather models had cited a cyclone formation alert in the North-West Pacific and another developing in the Central Pacific, both headed in a friendly westerly or north-westerly direction. There has been hardly any help from the dormant Arabian Sea, but the deep depression is strong enough to get the sea across the peninsula into the act, and drop some rain over the West Coast.

Forecasts said Odisha would be lashed by fairly widespread to widespread rainfall, with isolated heavy to very heavy and extremely heavy falls until tomorrow, and heavy rain subsequently. Adjoining areas of the plains of Bengal, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh would receive fairly widespread to widespread rainfall, with isolated heavy falls during next two days.

WEAK FLOWS TO SOUTH

Isolated heavy rainfall is forecast for Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Vidarbha tomorrow and the day after. The north-eastern states, too, may witness an increase in rainfall activity from tomorrow. Cross-equatorial monsoon flows are likely to remain weak for five more days, and rainfall may remain subdued over peninsular India during the next five days as well.

In detailed forecasts for today, the IMD said heavy to very heavy rain with extremely heavy rain at isolated places is likely over Odisha. Heavy to very heavy rain is forecast over Chhattisgarh, while being heavy over the plains of Bengal, Jharkhand, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and North coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Squally winds with speeds reaching ­50 km/hr and gusting to 60 km/hr may prevail along and off the Bengal and Odisha coasts and ­wind speeds of 40 kmph gusting to 50 km/hr over Odisha, Bengal and Jharkhand.  Sea conditions may remain 'rough' to 'very rough' over the North Bay, off the Odisha, Bengal, and Bangladesh coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.

EXTENDED FORECASTS

The outlook for tomorrow projects heavy rain over Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Odisha, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Konkan, Goa, Telangana and coastal Karnataka. Strong winds  with speeds reaching ­40  km/hr and gusting to 50 km/hr are very likely over Odisha, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh.

An extended forecast from September 11 to 13 said widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over North-East India. It will be fairly widespread to widespread, with isolated heavy falls over the eastern parts of India and fairly widespread over Uttarakhand and East Uttar Pradesh.

Scattered rainfall is likely over Central India and Tamil Nadu, while being isolated over the the rest of the country, except West Rajasthan, where dry weather may prevail. Meanwhile, the all-India rainfall statistics till date showed a deficit of seven per cent, with Rayalaseema (-46 per cent) and Lakshadweep (-43 per cent) in the South being the worst-affected. 

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