A series of meteorological events unfolding over the South-East Arabian Sea would make conditions ideal for the onset of the South-West monsoon over Kerala around June 1.

Though this is the normal date for the onset, seasonal rains may not reach the coast until June 5 (with a model error of four days) due to a combination of factors.

The first significant pre-onset event on Thursday has been reported from Sri Lanka, the penultimate stop, which has declared the monsoon’s onset over the island nation (normal date around May 22). It remains to be seen whether this lag will be carried into Kerala, as suggested by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Enters Comorin

In this context, the IMD said that the westerly winds have strengthened, setting up convective (rain-bearing) clouds, and dragging the monsoon into the seas around the Maldives-Comorin (Arabian Sea) along with Sri Lanka, more parts of the South Bay of Bengal and the entire Andaman Sea.

Monsoon flows over the Bay had been upset on the trail of super cyclone Amphan, which precipitated the onset of the Bay arm of the monsoon five days early on May 18 into its South-East basin. The Bay and the Arabian Sea arms advance in a ‘Y’ formation from the Equator.

The IMD said that conditions favour the advance of the monsoon further into the Maldives-Comorin during the next two days. A low-pressure area forming over the South-East and adjoining East-Central Arabian Sea around May 31 could be the final piece to fall into the monsoon jigsaw puzzle.

Meanwhile, a low-pressure area has formed over the West-Central Arabian Sea into the open waters west off Lakshadweep. It may concentrate into a depression with some weather models predicting a cyclone here and moving towards the South Oman and East Yemen coast.

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