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Monsoon withdrawal is likely to begin next week, forecasts IMD

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on September 07, 2020

Rainfall outlook till Tuesday morning   -  The Weather Company

May run into barrier shortly after

Conditions may turn favourable for withdrawal of the South-West monsoon from the extreme North-West India next week (September 11-17), according to Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director-General, India Meteorological Department (IMD). He stated this while making a virtual presentation to the media on the status of the monsoon in the last month of the season.

The ongoing week (September 4-10) will likely see the country as a whole receive less rainfall as compared to the previous week. But an increase in rainfall is indicated over the foothills of the Himalayas and the adjoining northern plains (normally a sign of a weakened monsoon), and the South Peninsula, while deficient rainfall is likely the outcome over East-Central India the North-East.

Week two (September 11-17) may witness further decrease in rainfall over the country as a whole, though excess rainfall is indicated for the North-East as well as the South-West Peninsula (Kerala-Coastal Karnataka). The Central and the North-West may see deficient rainfall as the region braces for the withdrawal of the monsoon.

But during the third week (September 18-24), the country as a whole will switch back to a regime of increased rainfall while the last week (September 25-October 1) is likely to see normal to slightly above rainfall. So, though they may plateau during the first two weeks, the rains are likely to recover their mojo during the last two weeks, ending the season in a flourish.

The seasonal surplus stands reduced from 10 per cent at the end of a rainy August into the first week of September, which couldn’t quite catch up since the Bay quietened down after frenetic activity. The monsoon activity is now concentrated over East India (from a remnant circulation) and over the South (low-pressure area in the Arabian Sea).

Successful cyclone tracking

Dwelling on achievements and new initiatives during the period, Mohapatra referred to the successful early warning/prediction as well as tracking of super typhoon Amphan (Bay of Bengal) and severe cyclone Nisarga (Arabian Sea); impact-based forecast and warning at the city and district level; and urban flood warning systems for the metropolises of Chennai and Mumbai.

Tracking of the two cyclones had earned IMD accolades from the State governments of Odisha and West Bengal (Amphan) and Maharashtra (Nisarga), besides appreciation from the public and the media. Regular and frequent updates through the social media during the entire season has helped enhance the IMD’s visibility among the public.

The IMD has also started actively collaborating with the Central Water Commission by providing the latter with quantitative precipitation forecast for 153 river sub-basins in the country. Other inputs included sub-basin-wise area rainfall received; station-wise significant rainfall received during previous 24 hours; and heavy rainfall warning for next three days.

Published on September 07, 2020

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